Top Returning Players in the Big XII

DSMok1 · 05-15-2009, 08:27 AM

Ready to be overloaded with statistics? Good...

The Top Returning Players in the Big XII

Here are the top 50 returning players by actual win production: (see Wages of Wins):

Code:

Rank	Player		Pos	Wins	Team
1	Cole Aldrich	C	15.593	Kansas
2	James Anderson	SF-SG	9.622	Oklahoma St.
3	Cory Higgins	SG	9.585	Colorado
4	Obi Muonelo	SF-SG	8.734	Oklahoma St.
5	LaceDarius Dunn	SF-SG	8.342	Baylor
6	Craig Brackins	PF	8.077	Iowa St.
7	J.T. Tiller	SG-PG	6.924	Missouri
8	Zaire Taylor	PG	6.599	Missouri
9	Dexter Pittman	C	6.560	Texas
10	Sherron Collins	PG	6.480	Kansas
11	Willie Warren	SG-PG	6.307	Oklahoma
12	Brady Morningst	SG-PG	6.134	Kansas
13	Tweety Carter	PG	6.052	Baylor
14	Justin Mason	SG-PG	5.566	Texas
15	Mike Singletary	PF-SF	4.833	Texas Tech
16	Dwight Thorne	SG	4.781	Colorado
17	John Roberson	PG	4.772	Texas Tech
18	B.J. Holmes	SG-PG	4.676	Texas A&M
19	Tyshawn Taylor	SG-PG	4.446	Kansas
20	Sek Henry	SG	4.442	Nebraska
21	Cookie Miller	PG	4.389	Nebraska
22	Ron Anderson	PF	4.288	Kansas St.
23	Marcus Morris	PF-SF	4.147	Kansas
24	Marshall Moses	C-PF	4.053	Oklahoma St.
25	Tony Crocker	SG	3.875	Oklahoma
26	Jamar Samuels	PF-SF	3.871	Kansas St.
27	Quincy Acy	PF	3.668	Baylor
28	Marcus Denmon	SG	3.658	Missouri
29	Dominique Sutto	PF-SF	3.607	Kansas St.
30	Dogus Balbay	PG	3.551	Texas
31	Tyrel Reed	SG	3.416	Kansas
32	Keith Ramsey	PF-SF	3.235	Missouri
33	Diante Garrett	SG-PG	2.946	Iowa St.
34	Jamie Vanderbek	PF-SF	2.902	Iowa St.
35	Cade Davis	SG	2.708	Oklahoma
36	Jacob Pullen	SG	2.672	Kansas St.
37	Buchi Awaji	SG	2.660	Kansas St.
38	Markieff Morris	PF	2.643	Kansas
39	Mario Little	SF-SG	2.536	Kansas
40	Gary Johnson	PF	2.462	Texas
41	Luis Colon	C-PF	2.402	Kansas St.
42	Justin Safford	SF	2.355	Missouri
43	Keiton Page	PG	2.347	Oklahoma St.
44	Laurence Bowers	PF-SF	2.248	Missouri
45	Robert Lewandow	PF	2.240	Texas Tech
46	Brandon Richard	SG	2.121	Nebraska
47	Denis Clemente	SG-PG	2.082	Kansas St.
48	Toney McCray	SF-SG	2.079	Nebraska
49	Kim English	SG	1.960	Missouri
50	Nick Okorie	SG	1.912	Texas Tech

That is, those players would contribute that many wins to a team of average players playing against a schedule of all-average teams. (Obviously, this depends strongly on number of minutes played..... an average player playing 40 minutes a game for 30 games is worth 3 wins--5 such players are worth 15 wins, or a .500 record.)

And here is a different look: wins produced per 40 minutes... players on this list that are much lower on the previous list are likely breakout candidates (minimum of 200 minutes played):

Code:

Rank	Player		Pos	Wins/40	Team
1	Cole Aldrich	C	0.601	Kansas
2	Dexter Pittman	C	0.452	Texas
3	Laurence Bowers	PF-SF	0.418	Missouri
4	Buchi Awaji	SG	0.395	Kansas St.
5	Mario Little	SF-SG	0.352	Kansas
6	Cory Higgins	SG	0.335	Colorado
7	Obi Muonelo	SF-SG	0.332	Oklahoma St.
8	James Anderson	SF-SG	0.329	Oklahoma St.
9	Craig Brackins	PF	0.310	Iowa St.
10	LaceDarius Dunn	SF-SG	0.298	Baylor
11	J.T. Tiller	SG-PG	0.294	Missouri
12	Ron Anderson	PF	0.269	Kansas St.
13	Zaire Taylor	PG	0.263	Missouri
14	Justin Safford	SF	0.263	Missouri
15	Quincy Acy	PF	0.263	Baylor
16	Marshall Moses	C-PF	0.260	Oklahoma St.
17	Marcus Morris	PF-SF	0.257	Kansas
18	Mike Singletary	PF-SF	0.253	Texas Tech
19	Keith Ramsey	PF-SF	0.249	Missouri
20	Jamie Vanderbek	PF-SF	0.248	Iowa St.
21	B.J. Holmes	SG-PG	0.247	Texas A&M
22	Brady Morningst	SG-PG	0.231	Kansas
23	Marcus Denmon	SG	0.230	Missouri
24	Sek Henry	SG	0.226	Nebraska
25	Willie Warren	SG-PG	0.224	Oklahoma
26	Jamar Samuels	PF-SF	0.222	Kansas St.
27	Cade Davis	SG	0.212	Oklahoma
28	Justin Mason	SG-PG	0.212	Texas
29	Sherron Collins	PG	0.211	Kansas
30	Cookie Miller	PG	0.205	Nebraska
31	Brandon Richard	SG	0.205	Nebraska
32	Tweety Carter	PG	0.202	Baylor
33	Juan Pattillo	PF	0.202	Oklahoma
34	Dogus Balbay	PG	0.198	Texas
35	Travis Releford	SF-SG	0.196	Kansas
36	Markieff Morris	PF	0.193	Kansas
37	Tyshawn Taylor	SG-PG	0.192	Kansas
38	Tyrel Reed	SG	0.189	Kansas
39	Dominique Sutto	PF-SF	0.185	Kansas St.
40	Dwight Thorne	SG	0.185	Colorado
41	Robert Lewandow	PF	0.177	Texas Tech
42	Toney McCray	SF-SG	0.169	Nebraska
43	Justin Hamilton	C	0.167	Iowa St.
44	John Roberson	PG	0.165	Texas Tech
45	Luis Colon	C-PF	0.155	Kansas St.
46	Nathan Walkup	SF	0.149	Texas A&M
47	Tony Crocker	SG	0.149	Oklahoma
48	Kim English	SG	0.143	Missouri
49	D'Walyn Roberts	PF	0.138	Texas Tech
50	Gary Johnson	PF	0.133	Texas

Note that players playing spot duty likely won't be able to keep up their per-minute performance--but if they did excellently with spot duty, they will probably be very good in a larger role.

I based this list on all players in the NBA early entry list staying in the draft... hence no Damion James.

sanguinetti · 05-15-2009, 08:32 AM

Ivan McFarland.

Dr Sleep · 05-15-2009, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DSMok1

Ready to be overloaded with statistics? Good...

The Top Returning Players in the Big XII

Here are the top 50 returning players by actual win production: (see Wages of Wins):

Code:

Rank	Player		Pos	Wins	Team
1	Cole Aldrich	C	15.593	Kansas
2	James Anderson	SF-SG	9.622	Oklahoma St.
3	Cory Higgins	SG	9.585	Colorado
4	Obi Muonelo	SF-SG	8.734	Oklahoma St.
5	LaceDarius Dunn	SF-SG	8.342	Baylor
6	Craig Brackins	PF	8.077	Iowa St.
7	J.T. Tiller	SG-PG	6.924	Missouri
8	Zaire Taylor	PG	6.599	Missouri
9	Dexter Pittman	C	6.560	Texas
10	Sherron Collins	PG	6.480	Kansas
11	Willie Warren	SG-PG	6.307	Oklahoma
12	Brady Morningst	SG-PG	6.134	Kansas
13	Tweety Carter	PG	6.052	Baylor
14	Justin Mason	SG-PG	5.566	Texas
15	Mike Singletary	PF-SF	4.833	Texas Tech
16	Dwight Thorne	SG	4.781	Colorado
17	John Roberson	PG	4.772	Texas Tech
18	B.J. Holmes	SG-PG	4.676	Texas A&M
19	Tyshawn Taylor	SG-PG	4.446	Kansas
20	Sek Henry	SG	4.442	Nebraska
21	Cookie Miller	PG	4.389	Nebraska
22	Ron Anderson	PF	4.288	Kansas St.
23	Marcus Morris	PF-SF	4.147	Kansas
24	Marshall Moses	C-PF	4.053	Oklahoma St.
25	Tony Crocker	SG	3.875	Oklahoma
26	Jamar Samuels	PF-SF	3.871	Kansas St.
27	Quincy Acy	PF	3.668	Baylor
28	Marcus Denmon	SG	3.658	Missouri
29	Dominique Sutto	PF-SF	3.607	Kansas St.
30	Dogus Balbay	PG	3.551	Texas
31	Tyrel Reed	SG	3.416	Kansas
32	Keith Ramsey	PF-SF	3.235	Missouri
33	Diante Garrett	SG-PG	2.946	Iowa St.
34	Jamie Vanderbek	PF-SF	2.902	Iowa St.
35	Cade Davis	SG	2.708	Oklahoma
36	Jacob Pullen	SG	2.672	Kansas St.
37	Buchi Awaji	SG	2.660	Kansas St.
38	Markieff Morris	PF	2.643	Kansas
39	Mario Little	SF-SG	2.536	Kansas
40	Gary Johnson	PF	2.462	Texas
41	Luis Colon	C-PF	2.402	Kansas St.
42	Justin Safford	SF	2.355	Missouri
43	Keiton Page	PG	2.347	Oklahoma St.
44	Laurence Bowers	PF-SF	2.248	Missouri
45	Robert Lewandow	PF	2.240	Texas Tech
46	Brandon Richard	SG	2.121	Nebraska
47	Denis Clemente	SG-PG	2.082	Kansas St.
48	Toney McCray	SF-SG	2.079	Nebraska
49	Kim English	SG	1.960	Missouri
50	Nick Okorie	SG	1.912	Texas Tech

That is, those players would contribute that many wins to a team of average players playing against a schedule of all-average teams.

And here is a different look: wins produced per 40 minutes... players on this list that are much lower on the previous list are likely breakout candidates (minimum of 200 minutes played):

Code:

Rank	Player		Pos	Wins/40	Team
1	Cole Aldrich	C	0.601	Kansas
2	Dexter Pittman	C	0.452	Texas
3	Laurence Bowers	PF-SF	0.418	Missouri
4	Buchi Awaji	SG	0.395	Kansas St.
5	Mario Little	SF-SG	0.352	Kansas
6	Cory Higgins	SG	0.335	Colorado
7	Obi Muonelo	SF-SG	0.332	Oklahoma St.
8	James Anderson	SF-SG	0.329	Oklahoma St.
9	Craig Brackins	PF	0.310	Iowa St.
10	LaceDarius Dunn	SF-SG	0.298	Baylor
11	J.T. Tiller	SG-PG	0.294	Missouri
12	Ron Anderson	PF	0.269	Kansas St.
13	Zaire Taylor	PG	0.263	Missouri
14	Justin Safford	SF	0.263	Missouri
15	Quincy Acy	PF	0.263	Baylor
16	Marshall Moses	C-PF	0.260	Oklahoma St.
17	Marcus Morris	PF-SF	0.257	Kansas
18	Mike Singletary	PF-SF	0.253	Texas Tech
19	Keith Ramsey	PF-SF	0.249	Missouri
20	Jamie Vanderbek	PF-SF	0.248	Iowa St.
21	B.J. Holmes	SG-PG	0.247	Texas A&M
22	Brady Morningst	SG-PG	0.231	Kansas
23	Marcus Denmon	SG	0.230	Missouri
24	Sek Henry	SG	0.226	Nebraska
25	Willie Warren	SG-PG	0.224	Oklahoma
26	Jamar Samuels	PF-SF	0.222	Kansas St.
27	Cade Davis	SG	0.212	Oklahoma
28	Justin Mason	SG-PG	0.212	Texas
29	Sherron Collins	PG	0.211	Kansas
30	Cookie Miller	PG	0.205	Nebraska
31	Brandon Richard	SG	0.205	Nebraska
32	Tweety Carter	PG	0.202	Baylor
33	Juan Pattillo	PF	0.202	Oklahoma
34	Dogus Balbay	PG	0.198	Texas
35	Travis Releford	SF-SG	0.196	Kansas
36	Markieff Morris	PF	0.193	Kansas
37	Tyshawn Taylor	SG-PG	0.192	Kansas
38	Tyrel Reed	SG	0.189	Kansas
39	Dominique Sutto	PF-SF	0.185	Kansas St.
40	Dwight Thorne	SG	0.185	Colorado
41	Robert Lewandow	PF	0.177	Texas Tech
42	Toney McCray	SF-SG	0.169	Nebraska
43	Justin Hamilton	C	0.167	Iowa St.
44	John Roberson	PG	0.165	Texas Tech
45	Luis Colon	C-PF	0.155	Kansas St.
46	Nathan Walkup	SF	0.149	Texas A&M
47	Tony Crocker	SG	0.149	Oklahoma
48	Kim English	SG	0.143	Missouri
49	D'Walyn Roberts	PF	0.138	Texas Tech
50	Gary Johnson	PF	0.133	Texas

Note that players playing spot duty likely won't be able to keep up their per-minute performance--but if they did excellently with spot duty, they will probably be very good in a larger role.

I based this list on all players in the NBA early entry list staying in the draft... hence no Damion James.

I love stats, but these are kinda meaningless.

oSuJeff97 · 05-15-2009, 09:43 AM

I love your stats DSMok1... keep 'em coming!

Quote:

I love stats, but these are kinda meaningless.

There are no meaningless stats... there is only meaningless analysis of stats.

DSMok1 · 05-15-2009, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Sleep

I love stats, but these are kinda meaningless.

Wins Produced is perhaps the best comprehensive measure of how much a player contributed to the team... I had to approximate it slightly because of limitations on access to some stats. It is based on the Win Score, which is:

Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF

That is then divided by minutes to give win score per minute (WS/min) (I adjust the totals based on the average opposition strength and pace of games.)

I then subtract the average for the position from each player's WS/min to account for the different roles on the court.... Centers, for instance, have the highest average win score because of the rebounds and fewer FGA. This normalizes the playing field so we can compare each player with all others.

Then I multiply the Position adjusted win score/min by the minutes played, apply a simple linear formula that correlates Position-Adjusted Win Score to actual wins (yes, some players can score negatively), and there you have Wins Produced and Wins Produced per minute. If a team played average competition, the number of wins produced is approximately how many wins the team actually had. Because I adjust for opposition (not necessary in the NBA, where the system originated (Wages of Wins), the wins produced for good teams sum up to more than the total number of wins possible.

This should be close to the best system possible for evaluating NCAA players against one another, and measuring their effect on the team. Do more reading at Wages of Wins to learn more... My system is not perfectly fine-tuned yet, analytically. But for comparisons, it should be very good.

gracefor24 · 05-15-2009, 12:42 PM

I love stats but the famous line is so true, "Stats are like a bikini, they show a lot but not everything."

Anything that ranks Dexter Pittman above Sherron Collins has to be taken with a grain of salt. Or Cory Higgins as the #3 returning player.

Again, the major thing wrong with the system is it can't take into account the human judgment of players. We all know that Willie Warren is better than Cory Higgins and no computer can convince any of us otherwise.

Sooner04 · 05-15-2009, 12:47 PM

I'm a baseball fan, so I always love me some stats, but I can't get behind a statistic that shows Obi Muonelo is worth more wins than Craig Brackins.

oSuJeff97 · 05-15-2009, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gracefor24

I love stats but the famous line is so true, "Stats are like a bikini, they show a lot but not everything."

Anything that ranks Dexter Pittman above Sherron Collins has to be taken with a grain of salt. Or Cory Higgins as the #3 returning player.

Again, the major thing wrong with the system is it can't take into account the human judgment of players. We all know that Willie Warren is better than Cory Higgins and no computer can convince any of us otherwise.

Again, I think it is the analysis of stats that is either valuable or not. Not the stats themselves.

I love stats, but I certainly don't think there is any one single stat that tells you everything.

That's why it's best to look at a wide swath of various stats and make reasonably informed assumptions based on them.

Quote:

I'm a baseball fan, so I always love me some stats, but I can't get behind a statistic that shows Obi Muonelo is worth more wins than Craig Brackins.

Here's where the analysis comes in. Everyone understands that a good center is probably going to figure more into a team's success than a small forward, even if they have similar production.

DSMok1 · 05-15-2009, 01:30 PM

I've seen a lot of criticism of this stat, but I think it is fairly accurate. What it does is penalize players for taking a ton of shots and missing a high percentage of them. That's what hurts Brackins, his low FG%. What this system says is that he is taking away shots from people with average FG%... except, of course, there aren't many better shooters on his team.

This system has predicted many things accurately, particularly in the NBA where a trade occurs... it very easily pointed out what the effect of the Iverson/Billups trade would be. And what it said would happen has indeed happened with those two teams.

Honestly, we tend to compare systems like these to our pre-conceived ideas... and if they don't match we don't like the system.

Hence the "Anything that ranks Dexter Pittman above Sherron Collins has to be taken with a grain of salt. Or Cory Higgins as the #3 returning player." How do we really know Collins is better than Pittman? Are you so sure? Collins has a bit of AI in him--hogs the ball and shoots too much. Pittman is a super-efficient rebounder and efficient scorer. He doesn't waste possessions--more of a... well, like Cole Aldrich.

In other words, this system likes efficiency! If you shoot 50%+ on 2pt or 33%+ on 3pt, you score for that. Any less and you get penalized.

Incidentally, the official site for NBA Wins Produced shows the following top 3 for this year's wins produced: Chris Paul, Lebron James, and Dwight Howard. (Chris Paul produced 65% of the Hornets' wins!)

DSMok1 · 05-15-2009, 01:37 PM

A few close to "Average" players from the Big XII:
Jacob Pullen
Denis Clemente
Keiton Page
Paul Velander
Gary Johnson
Connor Atchley
Omar Leary
Tony Crocker
Luis Colon

and (surprise) A.J. Abrams only a hair above average. (Some ridiculous hot streaks but shot his team out of ballgames too. Unfortunately, not against OU.) That's another reason I think Texas will do better with Avery Bradley instead!

thebigabd · 05-15-2009, 01:42 PM

I can't wait to see Warren vs. Higgins in Boulder this year.

Last year in the head to head in Norman, Higgins had 20 points on 9-18 shooting, he also had 3 rebounds and 2 steals. Warren had 5 points on 7 shots, but had 6 assists, 2 rebounds, and a steal.

gracefor24 · 05-15-2009, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DSMok1

I've seen a lot of criticism of this stat, but I think it is fairly accurate. What it does is penalize players for taking a ton of shots and missing a high percentage of them. That's what hurts Brackins, his low FG%. What this system says is that he is taking away shots from people with average FG%... except, of course, there aren't many better shooters on his team.

This system has predicted many things accurately, particularly in the NBA where a trade occurs... it very easily pointed out what the effect of the Iverson/Billups trade would be. And what it said would happen has indeed happened with those two teams.

Honestly, we tend to compare systems like these to our pre-conceived ideas... and if they don't match we don't like the system.

Hence the "Anything that ranks Dexter Pittman above Sherron Collins has to be taken with a grain of salt. Or Cory Higgins as the #3 returning player." How do we really know Collins is better than Pittman? Are you so sure? Collins has a bit of AI in him--hogs the ball and shoots too much. Pittman is a super-efficient rebounder and efficient scorer. He doesn't waste possessions--more of a... well, like Cole Aldrich.

In other words, this system likes efficiency! If you shoot 50%+ on 2pt or 33%+ on 3pt, you score for that. Any less and you get penalized.

Incidentally, the official site for NBA Wins Produced shows the following top 3 for this year's wins produced: Chris Paul, Lebron James, and Dwight Howard. (Chris Paul produced 65% of the Hornets' wins!)

Again, I'm not saying it doesn't have any value or we can't learn anything from it but some of the findings are flat out ridiculous. If you can't admit that then it's hard to take the stats seriously.

We know that Sherron Collins was 1st Team All Big 12 and 3rd team AA, he had to take a lot of difficult shots because of the nature of his team but to call him a ball hog shows that you are just looking at stats and not watching the games. Self asked him to shoot 20 times a game, he knew that KU needed that from him to be successful and they won the Big 12 and went to the Sweet 16. I take that for win %.