Softball

[skyvue]

Does this hurt our standing as tourney time? Could have been a nice pair of wins for our resume.

[sybarite]

Usually, we need several good out-of-conference wins because of our weak conference schedule.. This year, Texas has begun 16-1 with wins over Arizona State, Kentucky, and Wisconsin with the only loss to LSU in Clearwater. They get another shot at Wisconsin and Arizona State in Tempe today and tomorrow.

Texas Tech is 15-1 having opened with wins over Oregon, Arizona State, Wisconsin and Auburn. The only loss was to Washington at Cathedral City.

Texas is in the top ten, and Tech belongs there.

Oklahoma State also beat Arizona State and Kentucky. But, they have lost to Arizona, Notre Dame, and LSU.. They are 12-5 and probably about #20. The most recent polls have OU #4, Texas #9, Texas Tech #18, Oklahoma State #21, and Baylor #24 (although probably overrated). That is a lot stronger than the Big Twelve usually is.

[skyvue]

I'm surprised to see the baseball team is playing today; why was softball cancelled?

[sybarite]

Another board says travel plans? I think it may be that they don't really want to risk their pitcher's arms by having them throw four games in two days in cold weather. Rather have a healthy pitcher. But, I don't know.

[SoonerSpock]

Originally Posted by sybarite

Another board says travel plans? I think it may be that they don't really want to risk their pitcher's arms by having them throw four games in two days in cold weather. Rather have a healthy pitcher. But, I don't know.

Possibly true about injury potential. But I did notice that Oklahoma State played their double-header Sunday after also doing so Saturday. I hate to see the Sooners lose what could have been 2 wins ove top 25 teams as we will need those wins for the RPI come tournament time.

Travel time does not seem to be a logical excuse as the games had been moved forward and travel was already arranged for games being played later. I suspect UL and Oregon State felt they had played in enough cold weather after Saturday and preferred not to play. But who knows.

[TulsaWorld]

The Sooners return to action at 6 p.m. Tuesday against McNeese State. Here's a look at how the other in-state teams fared this weekend

[scrybe]

Truth is, neither Louisiana nor Oregon State were willing to brave the miserable conditions just to get their a$$es handed to them again by a team they had virtually no chance of beating.

Upon further reflection, I can't say I blame them.

[SoonerTraveler]

March 8, 2019 Oklahoma Game Notes (pdf file)
http://www.soonersports.com/pdf9/548...B_OEM_ID=31000

For those interested in the season stats so far, open the link and then go to page 10 of the Game Notes.

You can also access the Game Notes on the following page:

http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArti...CLID=211789524

[SoonerTraveler]

(Friday; March 8, 2019) ... Four Homers Propel OU to 7-0 Victory
http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArti...CLID=211794480

NORMAN – Four players homered while Giselle Juarez and Shannon Saile combined on a one-hitter to lead the No. 3 Oklahoma softball team to a 7-0 victory over No. 25 Northwestern on Friday night at Marita Hynes Field.

With the win, the Sooners (17-2) extended their home winning streak to 38 games, good for the second-longest run in program history.

In the circle, Juarez improved to 7-0 on the year by allowing just one hit over 5.0 innings while striking out six and walking one.

Entering the weekend ranked second nationally in strikeouts per seven innings, Saile fanned five of the six batters she faced over the final 2.0 frames.

The Sooner offense was powered by home runs from freshman Grace Lyons and seniors Sydney Romero, Shay Knighten and Kylie Lundberg.

Remaining Schedule for this Weekend
Sat; March 9 ... Drake (1:00 pm) .. FSOK+
Sat; March 9 ... Grand Canyon (6:00 pm)
Sun; Mar 10 .... Northwestern (1:00 pm) .. FSOK

[sybarite]

Tough week for some top 25 teams.

#1 Florida State lost to Grand Canyon, 5-3, and to Arizona 11-3 (5).
----first two losses

#4 Florida showed the problems of playing a weak schedule, losing two of three to Tennessee in Gainesville, FL Now 22-4.

#8 Georgia lost to Elon, 5-4.

#9 Texas lost two of three to Minnesota in Austin..

#10 LSU took two of three in College Station from A&M.

#12 Arizona lost two of three to Florida State in Tucson.

#13 South Carolina had played a pathetic schedule and was 18-2. #18 Kentucky was only 12-7, not all that imposing, but they had played some good teams. Kentucky went into Columbia, SC and swept three from SC.

#14 Arkansas, #16 Arizona State, #17 Indiana, #21 James Madison, #22 Minnesota, #23 Wisconsin, and #25 Oregon State all lost a game.

[SoonerSpock]

Originally Posted by sybarite

Tough week for some top 25 teams.


#4 Florida showed the problems of playing a weak schedule, losing two of three to Tennessee in Gainesville, FL Now 22-4.

#8 Georgia lost to Elon, 5-4.

#9 Texas lost two of three to Minnesota in Austin..

I don't think you can say Florida has played a weak schedule. To date they have played Michigan, #12 Arizona, Japan (exhibition), #16 ASU #2 UCLA (2), Oregon, #6 Washington and #7 Tennessee. That is 8 games against the top 16 teams plus Michigan, Japan and Oregon.

OU on the other hand has played #18 Kentucky, Notre Dame, #1 FSU, #2 UCLA, #12 Arizona and #11 Louisiana. That is 5 games against the top 18 plus Notre Dame. Which is definitely not as strong of a schedule as Florida has played.

Florida has 2 losses to #2 UCLA and 2 losses to #7 Tennessee. OU has 1 loss to FSU and UCLA. Florida has more losses which is not a positive but they have also played twice as many games against top 10 teams with 2 wins both shutouts to zero top 10 wins for OU.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softba...y/nfca-coaches

[scrybe]

Originally Posted by SoonerSpock

I don't think you can say Florida has played a weak schedule. To date they have played Michigan, #12 Arizona, Japan (exhibition), #16 ASU #2 UCLA (2), Oregon, #6 Washington and #7 Tennessee. That is 8 games against the top 16 teams plus Michigan, Japan and Oregon.

OU on the other hand has played #18 Kentucky, Notre Dame, #1 FSU, #2 UCLA, #12 Arizona and #11 Louisiana. That is 5 games against the top 18 plus Notre Dame. Which is definitely not as strong of a schedule as Florida has played.

Florida has 2 losses to #2 UCLA and 2 losses to #7 Tennessee. OU has 1 loss to FSU and UCLA. Florida has more losses which is not a positive but they have also played twice as many games against top 10 teams with 2 wins both shutouts to zero top 10 wins for OU.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softba...y/nfca-coaches

Of course you failed to mention that UF has played 16 of its 26 games in the state of Florida. OU has played only six of its 21 games in Oklahoma.

Makes a difference.

[SoonerSpock]

Originally Posted by scrybe

Of course you failed to mention that UF has played 16 of its 26 games in the state of Florida. OU has played only six of its 21 games in Oklahoma.

Makes a difference.

First my only point in my initial post was Florida did not play a weak schedule and I used the OU schedule as a comparison. The comparison confirms that Florida's schedule was a tougher schedule than OU's

Just as I failed to mention that Florida played ASU in Arizona and UCLA twice, Oregon and Washington in California I did not mention the Gators have future games with #1 FSU (2 games), #5 Alabama (3), #10 LSU (3), #20 Auburn (3) and #22 Minnesota (1). That is 7 games against top 10 competition 14 games against top 25 competition. For the season those numbers are 13 and 22.

OU has 3 future games against #9 Texas, #15 Tech and #19 OSU. That is 3 games against top 10 competition and 9 games against top 25 teams. For the season their numbers will be 5 and 14. Per my knowledge of math 13 is greater than 5 and 22 is larger than 14.

Conclusion: Florida has/is not playing a weak schedule. A fact you cannot dispute with credibility.

[sybarite]

Florida schedule:

https://floridagators.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=404

In Tampa:
---Illinois State 6-20
---Michigan (rated, but is 12-10?)
---Arizona (over-rated at the time)18-7
---NC State
---UCF

In Gainesville
---UNF ?

In Tempe
---Illinois State 5-20
---Arizona State (another team that began overrated)19-7
---San Diego 9-14
---Utah State 8-11
---Central Michigan 9-14

In Jacksonville
---Jacksonville 11-12

In Gainesville
---Illinois State 6-20
---Florida A&M 6-17
---Illinois State 6-20
---Syracuse 8-13
---Syracuse8-13
---Florida A&M 6-17

In Fullerton
---UCLA 22-1
---New Mexico 7-16
---Oregon 11-10
---UCLA 22-1
---Washington 22-3

In Gainesville
---Tennessee 18-3
---Tennessee
---Tennessee


They get a soft SEC schedule with only LSU and Alabama among the better teams.

A tougher schedule than OU? Really? Let's revisit whether any of their opposition merits being in the top ten when the season is over.

---look at how soft the bulk of that schedule is. Half of those teams couldn't beat a top ten team on a bet.

---we don't really know how good a couple of these are. LSU and Alabama don't travel 300 miles from home as a rule.

---the only thing they will have any record on is the usual SEC ratings bias. Can any of them beat Texas Tech?. They show Arizona State as a ranked team. Thus far, ASU has lost to Texas twice, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. They did beat Kansas. Arizona did lose to Florida in Tampa. Of course, they also lost to NC State and S Florida in Tampa. OU beat them in Palm Springs.

I question whether Florida is as good as Texas Tech. Are they about the same as Oklahoma State and Texas? Are there four teams in the SEC as good as Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State?

[Speedy17]

Originally Posted by sybarite

Florida schedule:

https://floridagators.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=404

In Tampa:
---Illinois State 6-20
---Michigan (rated, but is 12-10?)
---Arizona (over-rated at the time)18-7
---NC State
---UCF

In Gainesville
---UNF ?

In Tempe
---Illinois State 5-20
---Arizona State (another team that began overrated)19-7
---San Diego 9-14
---Utah State 8-11
---Central Michigan 9-14

In Jacksonville
---Jacksonville 11-12

In Gainesville
---Illinois State 6-20
---Florida A&M 6-17
---Illinois State 6-20
---Syracuse 8-13
---Syracuse8-13
---Florida A&M 6-17

In Fullerton
---UCLA 22-1
---New Mexico 7-16
---Oregon 11-10
---UCLA 22-1
---Washington 22-3

In Gainesville
---Tennessee 18-3
---Tennessee
---Tennessee


They get a soft SEC schedule with only LSU and Alabama among the better teams.

A tougher schedule than OU? Really? Let's revisit whether any of their opposition merits being in the top ten when the season is over.

---look at how soft the bulk of that schedule is. Half of those teams couldn't beat a top ten team on a bet.

---we don't really know how good a couple of these are. LSU and Alabama don't travel 300 miles from home as a rule.

---the only thing they will have any record on is the usual SEC ratings bias. Can any of them beat Texas Tech?. They show Arizona State as a ranked team. Thus far, ASU has lost to Texas twice, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. They did beat Kansas. Arizona did lose to Florida in Tampa. Of course, they also lost to NC State and S Florida in Tampa. OU beat them in Palm Springs.

I question whether Florida is as good as Texas Tech. Are they about the same as Oklahoma State and Texas? Are there four teams in the SEC as good as Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State?

Syb, there is NO WAY the Big 12 is better than the SEC in Softball. Give me a break on the Texas Tech thing, they have a lot to prove. Texas has a good coach now and raided Oregon.

As for Florida, they are 22-4 losing two to UCLA and two to Tennessee (18-3). Anyone who doesn't think Tennessee is tough in softball hasn't been paying attention over the years. If they had lost to Florida Atlantic, I would be concerned. They still have to go to LSU (21-5), play Bama (25-0), have a pair with #1 Florida State, and play Auburn (22-4). There are not any easy games on their conference schedule. On top of that, the Gators still have 3 time All American Kelly Barnhill on the mount which makes them a tough out.

[sybarite]

Have you actually studied what has happened this year, or are you going by the past?

[SoonerSpock]

Despite the rankings attempts to rank the top teams correctly mistakes are more prevalent earlier in the season. Schedules are also made prior to the season so schedule strength is somewhat like a preseason ranking a SWAG. But SOS via the RPI is finalized only after the conclusion of the regular season and conference tournaments. So the early season bias is minimized. They do allow the RPI committee to have subjective input in the final RPI rankings/seedings but that seem to be a detriment more so than an enhancement. Too many occurence like what happend to Minnesota in 2017.

OU by necessity plays all road games in February because of potential inclement weather conditions. Virtually all February games are scheduled in California, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas and Arizona. But the RPI system make allowances for the necessity to play games away from home like some teams (OU) must early in the season.

The RPI formula values each road victory as 1.3 instead of 1.0. Each home win is valued at 0.7 instead of 1.0. Conversely, each home loss counts 1.3 against a team’s RPI and each road loss counts 0.7 against a team’s RPI. Neutral-site games have a value of 1.0, but the committee is studying how to determine if a game should be considered a neutral-site contest.

The net of all of this is winning a 3 game conference series on the road nets 3.9 RPI points, a neutral site 3.0 points and at home 2.1 points. Win a series on the road 2 games to 1 and the RPI points gained are 1.9 points net (1.3x2=2.6-0.7=1.9) and win a series 2-1 at home and the net is 0.1 points net (0.7x2=1.4-1.3=0.1. Hence winning a split series on the road awards 19 times the points (1.9) as winning a split series on the road (0.1). I think that is too much of a descrepancy. Perhaps a 0.2 or 0.25 variance would be more effective than 0.3. But the NCAA has the historical data I don't.

This methodology is used because the home team historically wins in excess of 60% of the time. Hence theoretically a team is neither rewarded or penalized by RPI for were the games are played.

The RPI despite a very high level of historical seeding success is far from perfect and the NCAA's implementation of the NET system to replace RPI in MBB is an attempt to improve the RPI seeding process. If it is successful it would be logical to expect its future use in WBB, baseball and softball. For certain the effort and desire to future enhance the seeding process is ongoing by the NCAA as seen with NET implementation.

Regardless Syb will not be happy because the NCAA did not allow him to subjectively seed the teams. And he knows only he can get it right.

[scrybe]

Originally Posted by SoonerSpock

Regardless Syb will not be happy because the NCAA did not allow him to subjectively seed the teams. And he knows only he can get it right.

Lol. Mr. Pot, let me introduce you to Mr. Kettle.

[SoonerSpock]

Originally Posted by scrybe

Lol. Mr. Pot, let me introduce you to Mr. Kettle.

Great shot!!

Sad that you are incapable of differentiating between the two.

[tycat947]

Originally Posted by scrybe

Lol. Mr. Pot, let me introduce you to Mr. Kettle.

Bingo!

[Speedy17]

Originally Posted by sybarite

Have you actually studied what has happened this year, or are you going by the past?

Absolutely have studied what has happened this year. Florida is not any different than just about any year. I supposed you are going to compare them with Texas Tech. Tech is 24-1 but they have only played possibly four quality games this season if you count the depleted Oregon team. There is no comparison in schedule. Pitching and defense is always what it is about for winning in softball and baseball. You take Florida, they are currently the #1 fielding team in the country at .991, 14th in ERA at 1.65, and they have Kelly Barnhill 3X 1st Team All American on the mound adjusting to a new pitching coach. They lose 2 games to the #6 team in the country Tennessee and 2 games to #1 ranked UCLA and you are saying that Texas Tech is better than the Gators.

Texas Tech Softball Schedule

Lone Star Classic Conroe, TX
OMAHA W, 13-2 (5)
NEBRASKA W, 15-10
NEBRASKA W, 4-1
WISCONSIN W, 8-3
LAMAR W, 3-1

PLAINSMAN INVITATIONAL Auburn, AL
Drake W, 1-0
UAB W, 7-2
FURMAN W, 5-0
AUBURN W, 5-4
DRAKE W, 4-0


MARY NUTTER COLLEGIATE CLASSIC Cathedral City, CA
NO. 13/15 ARIZONA STATE W, 8-0 (5)
TEAM JAPAN (EXH.) L, 0-9 (5)
NO. 17 OREGON W, 5-0
SAN DIEGO STATE W, 7-0
NO. 5 WASHINGTON L, 1-4

TEXAS TECH INVITATIONAL Lubbock, TX
UT ARLINGTON W, 9-1 (5)
NORTH TEXAS W, 6-1
NORTH TEXAS W, 8-1
UT ARLINGTON W, 8-4

Lubbock, TX
UTEP (DH) W, 10-0 (5)
UTEP (DH) W, 16-8 (5)

JEANNINE MCHANEY MEMORIAL CLASSIC Lubbock, TX
NORTHERN COLORADO W, 8-0 (5)
GARDNER-WEBB W, 8-0 (5)
JACKSONVILLE STATE W, 11-3 (5)
GARDNER-WEBB W, 10-2 (6)
NORTHERN COLORADO W, 7-2

[sybarite]

Actually, yes. I am saying that Tech may well be better than the Gators.

Look at the schedules in greater depth. Wisconsin is 21-3 and ranked. Auburn is ranked, although I'm not certain they should be. Tech went to Auburn and beat them. Tech was, for a while,, the only team to beat Nebaska who opened pretty strong, winning at NC State and Pitt, two each. They got hit in a west coast tournament field and suffered from a three-game wipeout in Wichita.

Those North Texas and Texas Arlington teams that Tech beat may not be in the top twenty. But, they have been beating Louisiana who is in the top twenty, and Baylor, who was. Oh, and Furman just beat Indiana which may be the best team in the Big Ten this year. I don't think Georgia would argue with that.

[Speedy17]

Man, you are not giving Tennessee any credit. I am excited for Texas Tech, they play Northern Alabama, Murray State, Memphis and Maine this week in Memphis. Hopefully, they will be 28-1 when OU goes to Lubbock next week. It should be fun.

By the way, anybody who doubts Tim Walton is foolish. Tim Walton is the winningest Softball coach in the country over the past decade. He has a higher winning percentage than Patti and that sounds impossible. Of course, he is an OU guy so I am biased. He was the starting pitcher in the National Championship game on the OU 1994 title team. He was also the hitting coach on Patti's 2000 OU National Softball Championship team. The bottomline is Florida is not dropping off.

[SoonerSpock]

It will definitely be better for the Big 12 and OU if the conference continues to improve. It would be great if a season's end in most years if OU, Texas, Baylor, Tech and OSU were top 25 teams. Everyone's RPI would be elevated and the Sooners could afford 2-4 conference losses and still make the top 8 for a home super-regional opportunity. OU has not lost more than 2 conference games since losing 5 in 2012.

http://soonerstats.com/softball/seas...?seasonid=2012

[Salt City Sooner]

Originally Posted by Speedy17

Man, you are not giving Tennessee any credit. I am excited for Texas Tech, they play Northern Alabama, Murray State, Memphis and Maine this week in Memphis. Hopefully, they will be 28-1 when OU goes to Lubbock next week. It should be fun.

By the way, anybody who doubts Tim Walton is foolish. Tim Walton is the winningest Softball coach in the country over the past decade. He has a higher winning percentage than Patti and that sounds impossible. Of course, he is an OU guy so I am biased. He was the starting pitcher in the National Championship game on the OU 1994 title team. He was also the hitting coach on Patti's 2000 OU National Softball Championship team. The bottomline is Florida is not dropping off.

You have a phone call from Kevin Lovingier on line 1......