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Old 03-02-2018, 10:18 AM   #1
cowboysooner
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Default Facts -- Not Opinion

Team is 17 and 12.
6 of our losses have been single digit losses
2 our losses were by 10 and 11.

In short, 8 of our losses were decided by 6 or less unsuccessful possessions.

We also had some close wins.

The point is that if we had been just a tiny bit better defensively and/or offensively in 8 of our losses, we would by a top five team and Lon would be pushing for NCAA college coach of the year. He would be lauded nationally for turning the program around from last year, and winning while doing it "right", e.g. not cheating. He would be a poster boy for how to do things, e.g. making it fun for players, not being demeaning to players, fans or officials, open team practices, and competing without cheating.

In short, it is never quite as good as it looks NOR is it as bad as it looks.

We have shortcomings and things that need to be fixed. But, we aren't as far off as people make it.

We are in a terrible slide and might not be able to stop it this year, but I trust Lon to evaluate the situation and get it fixed by next year.

I hope we will all stay positive and continue to support the team.

As for this year, we are 13 and 1 when we shoot the 3 at 40%. If we can gain some consistency there or just get hot, we can beat about anyone. Other issues, will probably take an off season.
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Old 03-02-2018, 10:31 AM   #2
Jccouger
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

Yeah, sure...

Except how many of our wins were by single digits? Throw those the other way and we have the worst season in OU history.
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Old 03-02-2018, 10:44 AM   #3
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

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Originally Posted by cowboysooner View Post
Team is 17 and 12.
6 of our losses have been single digit losses
2 our losses were by 10 and 11.

In short, 8 of our losses were decided by 6 or less unsuccessful possessions.

We also had some close wins.

The point is that if we had been just a tiny bit better defensively and/or offensively in 8 of our losses, we would by a top five team and Lon would be pushing for NCAA college coach of the year. He would be lauded nationally for turning the program around from last year, and winning while doing it "right", e.g. not cheating. He would be a poster boy for how to do things, e.g. making it fun for players, not being demeaning to players, fans or officials, open team practices, and competing without cheating.

In short, it is never quite as good as it looks NOR is it as bad as it looks.

We have shortcomings and things that need to be fixed. But, we aren't as far off as people make it.

We are in a terrible slide and might not be able to stop it this year, but I trust Lon to evaluate the situation and get it fixed by next year.

I hope we will all stay positive and continue to support the team.

As for this year, we are 13 and 1 when we shoot the 3 at 40%. If we can gain some consistency there or just get hot, we can beat about anyone. Other issues, will probably take an off season.
a great example that shows exactly what you are saying is the ken palm luck index we are 146 in the country in luck and have faced the #1 SOS
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Old 03-02-2018, 10:57 AM   #4
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

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a great example that shows exactly what you are saying is the ken palm luck index we are 146 in the country in luck and have faced the #1 SOS
Kenpom doesn't lie at this point in the season. Regardless of wins and losses (good or bad, close or not), we are at #45....which means we are in the 11-seed range according to his metrics. As Bill Parcells would say.....you are what your record says you are.
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Old 03-02-2018, 11:17 AM   #5
OUSKINS
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

The problem with this team isnít the resume. If you had shown me their resume back in October I would have been content with the record and the fact that they were trending as a solid NCAA Tourney team in the 8-10 seed range. Itís about what I expected this year.

The problem is that in addition to resume one thing you always want to see is progressó both for the season at hand and the health of the program moving forward. This is where I think you are getting all the negativity and frustration.

Over the past 10-12 games OU has been a BAD basketball team. Not an average one or an unlucky oneó bad. They have basically done nothing well over this stretch. They have regressed mightily from early in the seasonó more so than you would think is reasonable even while acknowledging their early hot streak was likely unsustainable.

They have appeared listless as well. Few, if any, changes have been made and the ones that have arenít helping. So while you canít or shouldnít take away what they did early, it is painfully obvious that this is not a good team and not one that has any sort of momentum at all heading to the post season. And they are one loss to ISU away from falling from a projected #1 seed to not even being in the tourney.

Beyond this year, the lack of development of guys slated to return is troubling. Assuming TY is gone, next year looks a bit scary. The three sophomores have all had lost seasons so faró all three are worse now than they were at this time last year. Other guys like McNeace and James are about the same. No real incremental improvement like we saw with the Final Four team. Maybe they can bounce back next year without TY in the mix, but that in itself is also a black eye for the staff.

The season has reached a level of ugly that is hard to ignore.
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Old 03-02-2018, 01:20 PM   #6
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

Another Fact: We were in every single game until the lineup change occurred. We have been blown out twice since the change. I am not saying that we shouldn't have changed it up or anything I just don't think the lineup we went to is doing anything for us.
Another Fact: Getting Doo back over break has not worked out and he probably should have redshirted. We beat Wichita St, USC, Oregon, and we even beat TCU (out with concussion) for our only big 12 road win without him. Team Chemistry had to have been disrupted since he has played both at the 3 & 4 upon returning which has affected Freeman, Lazenby, McGusty, Odomes and now Manek. He has looked very rusty and ineffective and is now back in the lineup. I would rather have had another full year of Doo down the road than this partial year from him.
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Old 03-02-2018, 01:45 PM   #7
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Another Fact: We were in every single game until the lineup change occurred. We have been blown out twice since the change. I am not saying that we shouldn't have changed it up or anything I just don't think the lineup we went to is doing anything for us.
Another Fact: Getting Doo back over break has not worked out and he probably should have redshirted. We beat Wichita St, USC, Oregon, and we even beat TCU (out with concussion) for our only big 12 road win without him. Team Chemistry had to have been disrupted since he has played both at the 3 & 4 upon returning which has affected Freeman, Lazenby, McGusty, Odomes and now Manek. He has looked very rusty and ineffective and is now back in the lineup. I would rather have had another full year of Doo down the road than this partial year from him.
this
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Old 03-02-2018, 01:57 PM   #8
mardaddy51
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

Iíve been bagging on Lon the last few weeks, for good reason mostly, but a lot of this teamís problems are missed shots. Theyíve been getting a ton of good looks too, just brick city lately. Yes, their D is atrocious, but a lot of Ls turn into Ws with a few more made shots. Not sure what to contribute missed shots to? Eh, screw it! Fire Lon!
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Old 03-02-2018, 01:58 PM   #9
WichitaSooner
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

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Originally Posted by OU92Grad View Post
Another Fact: We were in every single game until the lineup change occurred. We have been blown out twice since the change. I am not saying that we shouldn't have changed it up or anything I just don't think the lineup we went to is doing anything for us.
Another Fact: Getting Doo back over break has not worked out and he probably should have redshirted. We beat Wichita St, USC, Oregon, and we even beat TCU (out with concussion) for our only big 12 road win without him. Team Chemistry had to have been disrupted since he has played both at the 3 & 4 upon returning which has affected Freeman, Lazenby, McGusty, Odomes and now Manek. He has looked very rusty and ineffective and is now back in the lineup. I would rather have had another full year of Doo down the road than this partial year from him.

I can't imagine a scenario where he would have been willing to redshirt even if asked. And the fact that the team was playing so well when he became eligible actually was a good reason NOT to redshirt him. At that point, this had the look of a potentially special season, and the only season we'd likely have Trae. Given that, voluntarily sitting one of the best talents on the roster wouldn't have made sense. Give yourself the best chance to capitalize while Trae is here. I don't think anyone could have reasonably expected Doo to have such a tough time working his way back into things.
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Old 03-02-2018, 02:02 PM   #10
cowboysooner
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

Boulder What is the "luck Index" and how is that determined or figured? Thanks.
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Old 03-02-2018, 02:26 PM   #11
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Boulder What is the "luck Index" and how is that determined or figured? Thanks.
so that is a ken pom stat ..
edited to just give you ken pom definition

The new ones are Cons (Consistency) and Luck. The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.

more info here https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/

Last edited by BoulderSooner; 03-02-2018 at 02:29 PM.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:12 PM   #12
okhoops918
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

The majority of basketball games in college basketball are decided by single digits or 12 or less.

You've just described every team with a mediocre record.

10 of our 17 wins were by 12 or less.

So we have 2 more number of wins by 12 or less as we do losses.

That doesn't describe a team that is unlucky or lucky. It just describes a very mediocre team.
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Old 03-02-2018, 07:44 PM   #13
DenverSooner
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Default Re: Facts -- Not Opinion

Does anyone lose when they shoot 40% from three point range?

I would expect every team to be 13-1 when shooting 49% from three of they take 10 plus shots.
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