2023 Bracketology catch all

BoulderSooner · 11-29-2022, 10:34 AM

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

OU an 8 seed and 9 big 12 team in the Dance ... (osu second team out)

stormspencer · 11-29-2022, 03:16 PM

Big 12 with 9 teams in the tournament and OSU is among the first four out.....wow. There isn't a realistic scenario where this could actually happen, but it does speak to the strength of the league early in the season. I think getting 7 teams is in certainly reasonable.....getting eight teams in would be nuts.

BoulderSooner · 12-19-2022, 08:12 AM

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

OU still in as of 6 days ago (one of the last 4 in)

pnkranger · 12-19-2022, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoulderSooner

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

OU still in as of 6 days ago (one of the last 4 in)

Beat Florida, .500 in conference, and Alabama's a throw-away game. That should get us in no problem.

8-10 in conference, and we would need to win a couple of games in the big 12 tourney to get in.

BoulderSooner · 12-19-2022, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pnkranger

Beat Florida, .500 in conference, and Alabama's a throw-away game. That should get us in no problem.

8-10 in conference, and we would need to win a couple of games in the big 12 tourney to get in.

agree

stormspencer · 12-19-2022, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pnkranger

Beat Florida, .500 in conference, and Alabama's a throw-away game. That should get us in no problem.

8-10 in conference, and we would need to win a couple of games in the big 12 tourney to get in.

8-10 in the best conference in the country and we are in easily.....around a 9/10 seed. If we go 7-11, that's where it gets dicey....would likely need to win at least a game in KC. Our metrics are good, just need to rack up some Q-1 wins....and we will have plenty of opportunity to do so. The committee puts little to no emphasis on conference record. They look at the season as a whole. A good win in November counts the same as a good win in March.....and vice versa.

WichitaSooner · 12-19-2022, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stormspencer

8-10 in the best conference in the country and we are in easily.....around a 9/10 seed. If we go 7-11, that's where it gets dicey....would likely need to win at least a game in KC. Our metrics are good, just need to rack up some Q-1 wins....and we will have plenty of opportunity to do so. The committee puts little to no emphasis on conference record. They look at the season as a whole. A good win in November counts the same as a good win in March.....and vice versa.

Way too early to make that kind of proclamation. It would depend who those 8 wins come against. As of now, we don’t have any eye-catching wins. The teams we beat in Florida aren’t very good and won’t do well in their leagues. Florida isn’t particularly strong, and is a game we need to win. If we lose to them and Bama, and then fail to pick off some big names in conference play, we will be in as dicey a spot as last year. It’s why choking away the Sam Houston and (to a lesser extent) Nova games is so frustrating.

stormspencer · 12-19-2022, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WichitaSooner

Way too early to make that kind of proclamation. It would depend who those 8 wins come against. As of now, we don’t have any eye-catching wins. The teams we beat in Florida aren’t very good and won’t do well in their leagues. Florida isn’t particularly strong, and is a game we need to win. If we lose to them and Bama, and then fail to pick off some big names in conference play, we will be in as dicey a spot as last year. It’s why choking away the Sam Houston and (to a lesser extent) Nova games is so frustrating.

Sure....it's early, but recent history backs up my statement. I'm assuming a win over Florida and a loss to Bama as well. Then while going 8-10 in conference, I would make the assertion that a few of those 8 wins would be Q-1 wins and the remaining wins would be Q-2. The Big 12 is the best and most complete conference according to any advanced analytic you look to (Kenpom, Sagarin, etc.). As you suggested, the loss to Sam Houston hurts, but will likely end up only being a Q-3 loss. And this will probably end up being our worst loss simply due to the power of the the Big 12.....unless one team just really craters. And yes, things still have to play out. Here are the Kenpom rankings (and NET ranking) for each Big 12 team as we wind down non con:
Kansas - 5 (6)
Texas - 6 (11)
Baylor - 15 (18)
WV - 17 (9)
OSU - 34 (46)
Tech - 37 (65)
OU - 38 (58)
TCU - 43 (72)
ISU - 46 (33)
KSU - 52 (37)

As you can see, our remaining games are all Q-1 and Q-2 games, but this is subject to change obviously. Also remember Iowa State got in last year at 7-11 in conference (they did go 12-0 in non-con however). If we go 7-11 in conference again this year, we are in trouble due to our somewhat disappointing non-con.

WichitaSooner · 12-26-2022, 03:24 PM

I see that we are listed as being in a playin game in the current Bracketology on ESPN. That’s not a good sign and confirms my fear that we don’t have much margin for error in the conference. In a couple of the years where we made it under Lon despite a poor league record, we had a big margin for error because we had such a strong noncon record. I just hope when all is said and done, we aren’t on the wrong side of the bubble because we couldn’t close out at least one of the two games we blew (Sam Houston and Nova).

BoulderSooner · 12-27-2022, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WichitaSooner

I see that we are listed as being in a playin game in the current Bracketology on ESPN. That’s not a good sign and confirms my fear that we don’t have much margin for error in the conference. In a couple of the years where we made it under Lon despite a poor league record, we had a big margin for error because we had such a strong noncon record. I just hope when all is said and done, we aren’t on the wrong side of the bubble because we couldn’t close out at least one of the two games we blew (Sam Houston and Nova).

ESPN current https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

OU is one of the last 4 buys

stormspencer · 01-16-2023, 03:17 PM

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scrybe · 01-16-2023, 04:10 PM

How would a win over No. 4 (currently) Bama affect everyone's outlook?

mict085 · 01-16-2023, 06:32 PM

Unless this team suddenly figures out how to not blow the game in the last 5 minutes, I don’t see us winning another 6 conference games. Arkansas outclassed this team. Bama will do the same but worse.

Sooner Season · 01-17-2023, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scrybe

How would a win over No. 4 (currently) Bama affect everyone's outlook?

I will take a win over OSU right now.

stormspencer · 01-17-2023, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scrybe

How would a win over No. 4 (currently) Bama affect everyone's outlook?

I would be ecstatic. Bama is the best team left on our schedule (better than KU right now) and it will take a monumental effort to knock them off. But even great teams can have off nights.

skyvue · 01-17-2023, 02:21 PM

Bama was ranked #9 last time we played them and we won. But we were #24 at the time.

WichitaSooner · 01-17-2023, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stormspencer

I would be ecstatic. Bama is the best team left on our schedule (better than KU right now) and it will take a monumental effort to knock them off. But even great teams can have off nights.

They are probably more athletic than KU, but remains to be seen whether they are actually better. I would love a win, but obviously it wouldn't mean a ton if we win that game while losing a bunch of games right around it. We just need to start adding up some wins, and obviously need some of them to against teams other than the bottom two or three in the league. We will get plenty of chances in this league.

stormspencer · 01-18-2023, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WichitaSooner

They are probably more athletic than KU, but remains to be seen whether they are actually better. I would love a win, but obviously it wouldn't mean a ton if we win that game while losing a bunch of games right around it. We just need to start adding up some wins, and obviously need some of them to against teams other than the bottom two or three in the league. We will get plenty of chances in this league.

That's a fair take. I think Bama is playing slightly better right now (just drubbing teams), but KU plays in a much tougher league obviously. To win a game like this, we are going to have to play as mistake free as possible and shoot well.

And yes, if we were to win this game and fall apart in other games, then it would serve little purpose in making a run for the tournament. Unfortunately this year, there are absolutely zero gimmes in this league and most, if not all, games will come down to the wire.....which is a little worrisome based upon our recent history. I just expect to be on edge for most of our games.

stormspencer · 01-18-2023, 10:20 AM

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skyvue · 01-18-2023, 11:41 AM

Hey, we're as good as Kentucky!

NAIA All-Star · 01-28-2023, 09:59 PM

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TINY · 01-28-2023, 10:52 PM

I still think ou is on outside looking in. Need to get 6 more wins total (including tournament), and I think we would be in.