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Old 02-26-2020, 11:09 AM   #1
BoulderSooner
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Default Where. OU stands

OU is 2 regular season wins from a lock.

1 regular season win and a tourney win from almost lock.


1 more regular season win puts OU right on the bubble
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Old 02-26-2020, 11:44 AM   #2
Hollisp
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Default Re: Where. OU stands

Yup. Math is still the same. It’s that simple
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Old 02-26-2020, 11:50 AM   #3
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Default Re: Where. OU stands

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has OU in his “Last 4 In” and that is after the win last night. That likely means 18-14 puts us squarely in the NIT field. I still think 19-13 puts us at the top of the bubble (where we apparently are right now). I’d like to get to 20 wins which would probably put us back in the 8/9 game like last year.
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Old 02-26-2020, 11:57 AM   #4
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Default Re: Where. OU stands

From a Big 12 tournament perspective, I've attempted to crunch the numbers with all "reasonable" outcomes not only with OU, but with the other (3) remaining games for each team.

The good news is that it will be virtually impossible that OU will be playing on Wednesday in KC. Again, I found only (1) crazy scenario (TCU winning out) which would put OU as the #7 seed (and OU would have to lose out as well). It appears OU will be anywhere from the #3 to the #6 seed.....with the highest amount of likely scenarios landing OU in the 4/5 game. If OU were to win out (gasp), and Tech lost to both Baylor and Kansas to close the season (very plausible).....then OU would be the #3 seed. With the link below, you can simulate the rest of the season.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb
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Old 02-26-2020, 12:01 PM   #5
WichitaSooner
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Default Re: Where. OU stands

Quote:
Originally Posted by WaymanFan View Post
Joe Lunardi of ESPN has OU in his “Last 4 In” and that is after the win last night. That likely means 18-14 puts us squarely in the NIT field. I still think 19-13 puts us at the top of the bubble (where we apparently are right now). I’d like to get to 20 wins which would probably put us back in the 8/9 game like last year.
Lunardi usually isn't the most accurate when it comes to seeding. He is obviously the most visible because of his ESPN platform, but there are guys who are consistently better at it.

Two more regular season wins locks us. One more and we are in a dicey spot heading to KC. One thing to remember -- if we avoid the play-in round in the conference tourney, that means our first game in KC carries no risk of being a "bad" loss because we would be playing one of the better teams in the league. So while winning that game would be a huge help, losing it wouldn't be a killer. But all that being said, losing two of our last three regular season games, then getting bounced right away in KC, would make for a very nervous wait.
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Old 02-26-2020, 12:10 PM   #6
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Default Re: Where. OU stands

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Originally Posted by WichitaSooner View Post
Lunardi usually isn't the most accurate when it comes to seeding. He is obviously the most visible because of his ESPN platform, but there are guys who are consistently better at it.

Two more regular season wins locks us. One more and we are in a dicey spot heading to KC. One thing to remember -- if we avoid the play-in round in the conference tourney, that means our first game in KC carries no risk of being a "bad" loss because we would be playing one of the better teams in the league. So while winning that game would be a huge help, losing it wouldn't be a killer. But all that being said, losing two of our last three regular season games, then getting bounced right away in KC, would make for a very nervous wait.
Agree with Wichita. Lunardi is really good on predicting who makes it, but not the greatest on seeding of those final teams.

I also agree two more regular-season wins locks us, but I would feel a lot better if those wins are WVa and Texas. We are now a NET rating of 49 and getting another Q1 win would help. I am not so certain of Texas is a must-win as I did a week ago as they have played their way back into Q2, so a loss would not be as disastrous. At this point, both Texas and TCU would be a Q2 win or loss.

As far as the tourney, it looks like it will be Tech, Texas or WVa. Winning that game for sure locks us.
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Old 02-26-2020, 07:01 PM   #7
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Default Re: Where. OU stands

If we could put together 1 great performance on the road and steal a W at wvu, that sure would be nice. They’re not playing all that great right now but we haven’t been good on the road all year. Now would be the time to buck that trend and steal a victory.
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