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Old 03-06-2020, 05:01 PM   #51
steverocks35
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

The first case of Covid-19 in Oklahoma was confirmed today in Tulsa
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Old 03-06-2020, 05:24 PM   #52
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The first case of Covid-19 in Oklahoma was confirmed today in Tulsa
Returned from a trip in Italy. Wonder how many places the individual visited once returning home.
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Old 03-06-2020, 05:55 PM   #53
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Mortality rates so far have been in the 2-3% range which is at least 200 times more deadly than seasonal flu. But even at low mortality, if it spread to millions of people, which is likely, you're talking about thousands of deaths.

And the virus has likely mutated, it appears to be more aggressive now than when it first started spreading in Wuhan.

The point of all this being, it's not likely that the government is going to want thousands of people inside a small arena in a virus hot zone.

Even in the "case study" that guy cited, the Princess Cruise ship, his calculated mortality rate of 0.85% is still more than 8 times the mortality of seasonal flu. (Also, that's a completely anecdotal case he cited, so it's not scientific)
hafta agree with stevo here. he's right. look back on how history views the flu of 1918.
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Old 03-06-2020, 07:41 PM   #54
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From an epidemiological standpoint, I expect the mortality rate to significantly decrease because:
- Many people have the virus currently and don't know it (haven't been tested) and will survive.
- There are a segment of people who had the virus (who were never tested) and have already recovered.

Thus, from a metrics standpoint, I don't believe we have (or will have) an accurate mortality rate. With that said, it's concerning that it spreads so easily, but I also think we are on the right path to getting it under control through various measures (isolation, quarantine, etc.) as well as several medications being administered that have worked on a few patients.
I agree. I expect the mortality rate to drop for a variety of reasons. However, there is definite reason for caution and concern. Some epidemiological models are predicting close to 70% penetration of the virus worldwide. Thatís 70% of the worlds populations contracting the virus. Letís look at just the US population of 330 million. 70% of that is over 200 million people. If the mortality rate is even half of what they think, or 1%, thatís over 2 million people dead in America alone. If the mortality rate drops to 0.5% thatís still 1 million people dead.

We are only on the front end of this deal. The very young, the very old, and the immunocompromised are at highest risk and will be the highest percentage of deaths. It may not be as bad as some are predicting, but it will be bad.
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Old 03-06-2020, 08:19 PM   #55
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

The common flu, in the US, had 32 million cases last year with 18000 deaths. So far, COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 3.4%. Do the math if we have 32 million cases based on 3.4%. However, since we don't have everybody being tested, and symptoms remain dormant for up to 14 days- 1-4 days for the common flu- a lot of people may have it without knowing. My guess is we will see an explosion in number of cases in US once people start getting tested, but deaths will remain close to the same.

Maybe a better read on the death rate is to look at South Korea. They have been the most aggressive country so far, administrating some 160,000 tests. As a result, they have discovered 6500 cases with 40 deaths. That is a fatality rate of 0.65%. Still more lethal than the common flu, but much different than the 3.4% that exists worldwide.

Tying it back to sports though, as we see the number of cases implode, we will continue to quarantines. Even if it is not as lethal as the common flu, it is much much more contagious. With no vaccine or drug treatment, the only way that seems to keep it from spreading is cancelling crowded events and quarantining people.

They cancelled SXSW today, Europe has prohibited fans at soccer games, Chicago State cancelled games and the NCAA has prohibited fans at the D3 tournament.

Last edited by MJSooner; 03-06-2020 at 08:35 PM.
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Old 03-06-2020, 08:22 PM   #56
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Yes!
So I see your stupid arguments are NOT just limited to OU basketball!

Good to know!!
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Old 03-06-2020, 08:27 PM   #57
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So I see your stupid arguments are NOT just limited to OU basketball!

Good to know!!
Condescension solves nothing.
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Old 03-06-2020, 09:10 PM   #58
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

NBA talking about playing games with no fans.
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Old 03-06-2020, 09:22 PM   #59
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NBA talking about playing games with no fans.
Article on this:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ronavirus-memo
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Old 03-06-2020, 09:22 PM   #60
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So I see your stupid arguments are NOT just limited to OU basketball!

Good to know!!
I see your stupid obsession with me also isn’t limited to basketball. Again, maybe message board posting isn’t the right activity for you.

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Old 03-06-2020, 09:43 PM   #61
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Don't know how to link tweets but Shams Charania tweeted the the NBA sent a memo to all teams saying they should prepare to play games without fans in attendance
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Old 03-06-2020, 10:19 PM   #62
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Don't know how to link tweets but Shams Charania tweeted the the NBA sent a memo to all teams saying they should prepare to play games without fans in attendance
His tweets are in the bleacher report article linked in post #59 above.
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Old 03-06-2020, 10:20 PM   #63
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Don't know how to link tweets but Shams Charania tweeted the the NBA sent a memo to all teams saying they should prepare to play games without fans in attendance
Those tweets are in the bleacher report article linked in post #59 above.
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Old 03-06-2020, 10:20 PM   #64
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Those tweets are in the bleacher report article linked in post #59 above.
my bad, i totally missed the comment
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Old 03-06-2020, 11:56 PM   #65
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I think the NBA could reasonably pull it off for a short period of time. It’s March, it’s the dog days of the season... they need these games to be played to keep the integrity of the season intact, but none of these games are SO important that you can’t get by w/o fans. Teams travel on private/charter, so they can get around without much exposure. And I am sure the teams are ensuring hotel rooms are throughly blasted before checking in. So the teams themselves can actually travel in relative safety— especially if the players don’t venture out much. What isn’t clear in the article is if broadcasts would continue. I would hope so. If not, then they should probably just cancel. Assuming the games would be aired, that could actually be a boom for the league. People would watch for the novelty of it plus it also likely means more and more people are staying home and looking for things to do/watch.

NCAA Tourney is different. No fans in stands just wouldn’t seem right. And travel is more difficult for the teams. But there would be immense pressure to get the games played as it is a huge TV and gambling event.
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Old 03-06-2020, 11:59 PM   #66
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

The NCAA tourney should be played without ku. Itís only fair.
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Old 03-07-2020, 12:49 AM   #67
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The NCAA tourney should be played without ku. Itís only fair.
Look at mict uniting the board
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Old 03-07-2020, 04:54 AM   #68
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My take on this:

1. The level of misinformation and fact vs. fiction on this thing is insane. I am not an expert in any sense and only trying to listen to the various "experts" and apply basic logic. And depending on which "expert" you choose or which news source you choose, the answers are wildly different. It does appear clear that this is FAR more dangerous to the elderly and those that are already ill. The reports are also clear that less than 2% of the cases in China involve children and those affected have very mild symptoms-- that seems to be something everyone agrees on.

2. At some point we have to decide what we want to do-- arbitrarily closing stuff doesn't make much sense. Closing schools and then sending kids to daycare or the local park makes no sense. We aren't China. We don't have an authoritarian/Communist gov't that has the ability to lock EVERYONE down (even healthy people) in a situation like this. The only way we can probably truly get this thing to "go away" or be highly manageable is if we all stop human interaction and stay in our homes for the next 6-12 months. This is here to stay now a lot like H1N1 and other things that come along. It's not like if we shut down OKC for three weeks and then open it back up that we will have magically defeated the disease. And if we do go on longterm lockdown, the negative effects of that are likely to be greater than the virus itself. The economy would crumble-- there would be mass lay-offs and income would totally dry up for many, many people. That all might be worth it if this was a highly fatal disease or if it has crippling effects for the majority who caught it. But I think it's more likely this is just a new thing we have to learn to deal with and mitigate.

3. If the NCAA says no fans at game, they should just cancel the Tournament altogether. It would be totally lame and again, a little arbitrary. Teams would still be traveling on plane and in airports, staying in hotels, etc. And unless all of the fans stay locked at home instead of going to the arena, they will likely go out in the community and do other things. At an arena you are most likely to get infected by a sick person sitting very close to you-- not some guy in the upper level. So the risk isn't necessarily that much greater than if you ride the subway or take an uber or go to a restaurant. I understand the CYA nature of this and how no business/entity wants to be the one to hold an event and then find out someone sick attended/possibly spread it at said event.

4. I'm already a germaphobe and wash my hands raw daily; I also routinely wipe down tables and such when we go out to eat... so none of that is a big deal to me. I don't fear getting the virus either-- the science indicates to that myself and my immediate family would not suffer much more than a cold if we were to catch it-- I do fear for the elderly as this appears to be very tough on them. But mostly I fear the fear and what the "shutdown" mentality might inadvertently lead to.
A voice of reason with a few others sprinkled throughout I didn't mention. It'a a cold.

Some of you guys need to turn the TV off and turn the radio on to find your information.

Put your hands down people. The sky is not falling.
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:38 AM   #69
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A voice of reason with a few others sprinkled throughout I didn't mention. It'a a cold.

Some of you guys need to turn the TV off and turn the radio on to find your information.

Put your hands down people. The sky is not falling.
A cold that kills people and spreads like wildfire. By the way, the VA has instituted screening at ALL itís facilities, do they do that for the cold? What radio shows are you getting ďinformationĒ from anyway? Wow...
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Old 03-07-2020, 08:43 AM   #70
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A voice of reason with a few others sprinkled throughout I didn't mention. It'a a cold.

Some of you guys need to turn the TV off and turn the radio on to find your information.

Put your hands down people. The sky is not falling.
Couldnít agree more.
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Old 03-07-2020, 09:55 AM   #71
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Amtrak cancelled its DC to New York train until late May, I’m sure they don’t mind losing a few million bucks for “the cold.” You guys keep your heads buried in the sand though.
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Old 03-07-2020, 11:46 AM   #72
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radio. lol. what time is FDRís fireside chat tonight?
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Old 03-07-2020, 12:18 PM   #73
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radio. lol. what time is FDRís fireside chat tonight?
After the hot cocoa is served and you should know better than to ask for marshmallows.
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Old 03-07-2020, 12:23 PM   #74
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Amtrak cancelled its DC to New York train until late May, Iím sure they donít mind losing a few million bucks for ďthe cold.Ē You guys keep your heads buried in the sand though.
H1N1 in 2009 infected somewhere between 700M-1.2 billion people worldwideó and it started right here in the US. Deaths were somewhere between 250,000-550,000 depending on what you read/believe. It also hit kids much harder than this one is hitting and didnít seem to hit the elderly as hard. It was a pandemicó the biggest one since the Spanish Flu. But society chugged along and there wasnít nearly the level of panic we see now. I think this is mostly social media fueled. I do not think the virus itself is ďfake news.Ē Itís here, itís spreading, and it will continue to do so. My question is what do you think we as a society should do? Most epedimiaolgists seem to think this will have a peak life of 6-12 months before it can be really scaled back. Do we all bunker down for next year gloabally? I mean, thatís World War Z stuff right there.

I think the answer is we accept what this is and go about our lives. If you think you are at a higher risk, then maybe you stay home or avoid certain situations. But this notion that everyone can stay home with their three week supply of toilet paper and granola bars and then emerge in early April to a germ-free world is totally illogical.
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Old 03-07-2020, 12:34 PM   #75
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I wonder what affect, if at all, the warmer weather will help to contain the spread of the virus.


And Lebron has stated if there are no fans "he ain't playing."

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