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Old 01-09-2020, 07:52 AM   #1
BoulderSooner
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Default OU losses

OU has no bad losses and not even close to one

Witicha St is NET 10

stanford is NET 17

creighton is NET 32
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Old 01-09-2020, 08:11 AM   #2
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Default Re: OU losses

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OU has no bad losses and not even close to one

Witicha St is NET 10

stanford is NET 17

creighton is NET 32
I'm sure some on the board would say Stanford is "terrible" based on how they looked in their loss to KU lol. I hate WSU and cheer against them, but the one silver lining each time they win is that it helps our SOS. Oregon State picked up a nice road win against Colorado over the weekend, which also helps.
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Old 01-09-2020, 08:58 AM   #3
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Default Re: OU losses

Boom. Legit
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Old 01-09-2020, 12:09 PM   #4
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Default Re: OU losses

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Originally Posted by BoulderSooner View Post
OU has no bad losses and not even close to one

Witicha St is NET 10

stanford is NET 17

creighton is NET 32
And looking at the remaining schedule (NET team sheet), there are no remaining opportunities for "bad losses". No potential loss would be worse than a quadrant-2 loss moving forward. Also, as of today, it appears that we will have (9) more opportunities for quadrant-1 wins. Need to cash in on a few of those.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi...08,%202020.pdf
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Old 01-09-2020, 12:38 PM   #5
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Default Re: OU losses

We have a chance to suffer a bad loss our next time out the tunnel. Iowa State is not any good, and the Jayhawks just dumptrucked them inside Hilton Coliseum.

Let's put that last 30 minutes from last night on display Saturday and snag a W.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:09 PM   #6
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Default Re: OU losses

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We have a chance to suffer a bad loss our next time out the tunnel. Iowa State is not any good, and the Jayhawks just dumptrucked them inside Hilton Coliseum.

Let's put that last 30 minutes from last night on display Saturday and snag a W.
There's a fan's assessment of bad, and then there's the selection committee's. ISU is currently 62 in Kenpom, 12 spots ahead of texas. As it stands now, a loss to them wouldn't be a "bad" loss in the eyes of the committee (I understand that could change by season's end), but I'm with you in hoping we make it a moot point on Saturday.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:18 PM   #7
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Default Re: OU losses

The original poster has created a factual post.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:20 PM   #8
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Default Re: OU losses

A loss at Iowa State would stink because it's very winnnable and I think we will; however, it is a "Quadrant 2" win or loss by the NET Rankings. Quadrant 2 losses are not bad losses, especially on the road.

And although Texas might not seem like a "great" win, that is currently a "Quandrant 1" win. So by the committee's standards, it's a great win.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:27 PM   #9
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Default Re: OU losses

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The original poster has created a factual post.
I made this exact point about our losses not so long ago (using Kenpom rankings rather than NET), and though no one seemed to want to hear it at the time, it was no less true then. I'm glad the OP brought it up again -- it bears repeating until it sinks in.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:34 PM   #10
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Default Re: OU losses

Fan vs committee Ws and Ls are gonna be debated on here for a while I think.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:36 PM   #11
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Default Re: OU losses

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Originally Posted by skyvue View Post
I made this exact point about our losses not so long ago (using Kenpom rankings rather than NET), and though no one seemed to want to hear it at the time, it was no less true then. I'm glad the OP brought it up again -- it bears repeating until it sinks in.
Sorry, must have missed it.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:48 PM   #12
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Default Re: OU losses

Iowa State is not any good. That's an eye test observation from a guy who isn't versed in analytics. If the Cyclones prove to be as poor as I've witnessed, can they lose every conference game and not drop in the quadrants? Are they already penciled in as quadrant-2 simply because they will no longer play any bad teams?

To me, a win in Ames is the margin for a bubble team like ourselves. It's a really good win if you get it, and it's a bad loss if you don't. But I'm old-fashioned. We now live in a world where a 7-11 conference record can get you in the Dance.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:52 PM   #13
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Default Re: OU losses

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Iowa State is not any good. That's an eye test observation from a guy who isn't versed in analytics. If the Cyclones prove to be as poor as I've witnessed, can they lose every conference game and not drop in the quadrants? Are they already penciled in as quadrant-2 simply because they will no longer play any bad teams?

To me, a win in Ames is the margin for a bubble team like ourselves. It's a really good win if you get it, and it's a bad loss if you don't. But I'm old-fashioned. We now live in a world where a 7-11 conference record can get you in the Dance.
(A) Zero chance they go winless, or even close to it. (B) Their NET ranking isn't static, but won't drop much playing in the Big 12.

And not to nitpick, but a 7-11 record doesn't get you in the tourney any more than a 17-1 record gets you there. It is a nonfactor. I know it isn't easy because we are all so used to that being a factor, but we just have to stop referencing conference records in discussing what actually plays a role in the selection process.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:54 PM   #14
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Default Re: OU losses

Ahahahaha! Told ya! My comment lasted a whole 14 minutes before we got the first of many examples.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:56 PM   #15
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Default Re: OU losses

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Originally Posted by Sooner04 View Post
Iowa State is not any good. That's an eye test observation from a guy who isn't versed in analytics. If the Cyclones prove to be as poor as I've witnessed, can they lose every conference game and not drop in the quadrants? Are they already penciled in as quadrant-2 simply because they will no longer play any bad teams?

To me, a win in Ames is the margin for a bubble team like ourselves. It's a really good win if you get it, and it's a bad loss if you don't. But I'm old-fashioned. We now live in a world where a 7-11 conference record can get you in the Dance.
i think i agree with you for the most part. But i'll take a win in ames any day
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:57 PM   #16
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Default Re: OU losses

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(but a 7-11 record doesn't get you in the tourney any more than a 17-1 record gets you there.
ok lol
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Old 01-09-2020, 02:14 PM   #17
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Default Re: OU losses

Last night was the first OU game RealtimeRPI predicted incorrectly this year.

Has us losing to ISU 77-73 on Saturday
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Old 01-09-2020, 02:31 PM   #18
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Last night was the first OU game RealtimeRPI predicted incorrectly this year.

Has us losing to ISU 77-73 on Saturday
Was last night a bad loss for RealtimeRPI?
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Old 01-09-2020, 03:02 PM   #19
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Default Re: OU losses

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Originally Posted by stormspencer View Post
And looking at the remaining schedule (NET team sheet), there are no remaining opportunities for "bad losses". No potential loss would be worse than a quadrant-2 loss moving forward. Also, as of today, it appears that we will have (9) more opportunities for quadrant-1 wins. Need to cash in on a few of those.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi...08,%202020.pdf
Quad 3 losses are bad losses and we have 3 Quad 3 games left. Have to and should win those 3.
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Old 01-09-2020, 03:19 PM   #20
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Quad 3 losses are bad losses and we have 3 Quad 3 games left. Have to and should win those 3.
You're exactly right....good catch. I misread the columns. And yes, those three home games (UT, ISU, Miss St.) would be considered "bad losses" because those are quadrant-3 games.

So from an analytics standpoint, we could suffer as many as three bad losses (Q-3) as it stands right now. Having said that, the NET is fluid and teams performances moving forward may move a game or two from quadrant to quadrant.

Last edited by stormspencer; 01-09-2020 at 03:28 PM.
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Old 01-09-2020, 03:24 PM   #21
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Default Re: OU losses

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Originally Posted by Sooner04 View Post
Iowa State is not any good. That's an eye test observation from a guy who isn't versed in analytics. If the Cyclones prove to be as poor as I've witnessed, can they lose every conference game and not drop in the quadrants? Are they already penciled in as quadrant-2 simply because they will no longer play any bad teams?

To me, a win in Ames is the margin for a bubble team like ourselves. It's a really good win if you get it, and it's a bad loss if you don't. But I'm old-fashioned. We now live in a world where a 7-11 conference record can get you in the Dance.
I get what you're saying from a conceptual standpoint. But a loss to ISU isn't really close to a "bad loss" according to the NET analytics. We need to win that game regardless because ISU is down and, from the eye test, don't seem to be all that good. In the current NET rankings:
Texas - 76
ISU - 89
K-State - 98

A road game quadrant-3 loss would be if the team is ranked 136 or worse. So from above, we likely won't encounter that. So that gives a little more perspective on this.

Having said all that, if teams like Texas, ISU or K-State end up cratering on their season....then they could potentially become a bad loss if we lose to them on the road.

Last edited by stormspencer; 01-09-2020 at 03:28 PM.
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