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Old 03-13-2019, 10:00 PM   #201
slappy in OP
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Still think we are in, but losing to WVU is a BAD loss to limp into the tourney with. Canít say I have complete confidence at this point.
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Old 03-13-2019, 10:13 PM   #202
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Still think we are in, but losing to WVU is a BAD loss to limp into the tourney with. Canít say I have complete confidence at this point.
I think this sums it up nicely. We should be fine, it's just an ugly way to go into the tournament, off such a shoddy performance as that.
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Old 03-13-2019, 10:21 PM   #203
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I think this sums it up nicely. We should be fine, it's just an ugly way to go into the tournament, off such a shoddy performance as that.
Yep....can't wait to go in as a 10/11 seed and get our asses run out of the gym by another mediocre team.
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Old 03-14-2019, 04:14 AM   #204
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

OU is in per ESPN and not one of the last 8 in
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Old 03-14-2019, 06:08 AM   #205
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

OU is in.... I said earlier it would take a WVU loss and a bunch of bad luck in conference tournaments for OU to not make it... We will see but they will get in, even if it's a 12 seed or something
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:44 AM   #206
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Since so many still debate whether we will/should make it . . . I emailed this morning with a guy who has a very good track record as a "bracketologist." I won't paste his entire email since I didn't ask if he was ok with me doing that, but here is a summary of what he said about OU. After last night, he dropped them to a 10. (He has us as the top 10 seed.) In his view, there is almost no way we would fall far enough not to make it. He specifically mentioned our lack of a single Quad 4 loss as a factor that many fans/analysts fail to place enough emphasis on. He also said that because so many of the bubble teams who are behind us will play each other this week, they will beat up on each other, which guarantees that only a small number of them will win enough games to make a jump this week.

Take it for what it's worth, but that is the analysis of a guy who does this for a living and who understands the selection process and the factors that do, and don't, matter.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:59 AM   #207
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Gonzaga lost in their conference... South Dakota State got upset in the first round of their tournament... So that is 2 bids gone to teams "on the bubble"... Anyone have any more info on the smaller league upsets?
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:02 AM   #208
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Gonzaga lost in their conference... South Dakota State got upset in the first round of their tournament... So that is 2 bids gone to teams "on the bubble"... Anyone have any more info on the smaller league upsets?
south dakota st is not getting in
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:04 AM   #209
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south dakota st is not getting in
Yea, not sure what i was thinking there. They got upset but its not like they are getting an at-large bid.

So far then its just whoever wins Gonzagas league stealing a bid.
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Old 03-14-2019, 02:12 PM   #210
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Gonzaga lost in their conference... South Dakota State got upset in the first round of their tournament... So that is 2 bids gone to teams "on the bubble"... Anyone have any more info on the smaller league upsets?
I didn't have St. Mary's as a stealing a bid, they were likely in anyway, so I don't view that Gonzaga loss to them as a deal a deal as some. South Dakota St. had less than a zero chance of an at-large bid, so that's a meaningless loss and didn't steal a bid in the least.

I think OU is comfortably in, but to play along, we're rooting for Buffalo, Nevada/Utah St., Washington, Kansas, and obviously against a team like Creighton/Xavier or Georgetown or Alabama getting hot and winning multiple games.

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Old 03-14-2019, 02:13 PM   #211
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Since so many still debate whether we will/should make it . . . I emailed this morning with a guy who has a very good track record as a "bracketologist." I won't paste his entire email since I didn't ask if he was ok with me doing that, but here is a summary of what he said about OU. After last night, he dropped them to a 10. (He has us as the top 10 seed.) In his view, there is almost no way we would fall far enough not to make it. He specifically mentioned our lack of a single Quad 4 loss as a factor that many fans/analysts fail to place enough emphasis on. He also said that because so many of the bubble teams who are behind us will play each other this week, they will beat up on each other, which guarantees that only a small number of them will win enough games to make a jump this week.

Take it for what it's worth, but that is the analysis of a guy who does this for a living and who understands the selection process and the factors that do, and don't, matter.
It doesn't take a guy doing this for a living to figure out we're fine (and I do not say this in the least to disparage your friend, I hope it doesn't come off as that!). As you and I and others have said for quite some time, our resume is simply stronger than the majority of the bubble teams, in a year when the bubble teams are historically bad.

Also, we haven't even played a Q4 GAME, let alone had a Q4 loss. That is absolutely one of the biggest coups we have in all of this.

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Old 03-14-2019, 02:36 PM   #212
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It doesn't take a guy doing this for a living to figure out we're fine (and I do not say this in the least to disparage your friend, I hope it doesn't come off as that!). As you and I and others have said for quite some time, our resume is simply stronger than the majority of the bubble teams, in a year when the bubble teams are historically bad.

Also, we haven't even played a Q4 GAME, let alone had a Q4 loss. That is absolutely one of the biggest coups we have in all of this.
Oh I agree -- and no offense taken. I just wanted to throw it out there because for some reason, a lot of people seem to be worried again after last night, so I thought maybe some perspective from a well-known bracket guy would get the message across where the rest of us have failed.
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Old 03-14-2019, 02:38 PM   #213
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

A lot of people = 2/3 posters that don't even post that much. lol
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:20 PM   #214
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

So....if Texas loses tonight, do they still make the cut at 16-16? They are currently down 10 to KU in the 2nd half. Their metrics are pretty good and they have (5) Q-1 wins to along with only (1) bad loss. I think their metrics have them as a 10/11 seed range....even despite their overall win/loss record.

However, the biggest obstacle for them is history. No at-large team has ever been chosen with a .500 record. And they are banking on the committee to set a new precedent by including them as an at-large team. I don't envy the position that they are in.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:40 PM   #215
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So....if Texas loses tonight, do they still make the cut at 16-16? They are currently down 10 to KU in the 2nd half. Their metrics are pretty good and they have (5) Q-1 wins to along with only (1) bad loss. I think their metrics have them as a 10/11 seed range....even despite their overall win/loss record.

However, the biggest obstacle for them is history. No at-large team has ever been chosen with a .500 record. And they are banking on the committee to set a new precedent by including them as an at-large team. I don't envy the position that they are in.
If they lose, I definitely wouldn't want to be in their shoes. I thought they came to KC needing a win. Had they won either of their last two regular season games, I think they'd be in solid shape but blowing the lead at Baylor and then getting routed at home by TCU might be too much to overcome unless they pull this out.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:52 PM   #216
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If they lose, I definitely wouldn't want to be in their shoes. I thought they came to KC needing a win. Had they won either of their last two regular season games, I think they'd be in solid shape but blowing the lead at Baylor and then getting routed at home by TCU might be too much to overcome unless they pull this out.
With the exception of Bama, it seems like most of the teams that could possibly jump them from behind have been losing today (Clemson, Creighton, Indiana, Georgetown). Unless something crazy happens in the Atlantic 10 or Pac 12 tournaments, I have a feeling they will skate by and still make the first four in Dayton. But they are in a tough spot.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:11 PM   #217
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

One interesting tidbit, if West Virginia moves up 10 spots in the NET, that is no longer a Quad 3 loss. They'll obviously get a huge lift from beating Tech.
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:51 PM   #218
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One interesting tidbit, if West Virginia moves up 10 spots in the NET, that is no longer a Quad 3 loss. They'll obviously get a huge lift from beating Tech.
don't know, sure maybe it's possible. what's the opposite of a pyrrhic victory? probably not such a thing....but hey!
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Old 03-15-2019, 08:26 AM   #219
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Texas was at 8% last night with a loss.
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Old 03-15-2019, 08:39 AM   #220
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Texas was at 8% last night with a loss.
Most projections have them out. Lunardi was one of the few who had them in before last night, a lot of guys already had them on the outside looking in.
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Old 03-15-2019, 09:04 AM   #221
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

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Texas was at 8% last night with a loss.
That was according the the ESPN BPI metric....which is far from the best metric. I would look at Kenpom, Torvik (T-Rank), Sagarin, and Haslamterics as much better indicators....and of course NET.
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Old 03-15-2019, 10:26 AM   #222
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Texas has ZERO chance. Not only would they never let a team that is 16-16 in, but the fact Hayes got hurt makes it all but official. They aren't letting them in regardless, and with them now likely missing a key piece, there's just no chance.

We're big VCU fans today, btw.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:24 AM   #223
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Texas has ZERO chance. Not only would they never let a team that is 16-16 in, but the fact Hayes got hurt makes it all but official. They aren't letting them in regardless, and with them now likely missing a key piece, there's just no chance.

We're big VCU fans today, btw.
VCU and Buffalo are two teams who would disappoint bubble teams with losses in their conference tourneys. I don't think OU would be one of the teams in danger if they lose, but for the teams right around the cut line, losses by either of those teams would be bad news.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:29 AM   #224
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VCU and Buffalo are two teams who would disappoint bubble teams with losses in their conference tourneys. I don't think OU would be one of the teams in danger if they lose, but for the teams right around the cut line, losses by either of those teams would be bad news.
I don't see anyone beating Buffalo in the MAC. The second best team (Toledo) got eliminated yesterday.

VCU, on the other hand, just lost one of their best players today during their game with Rhode Island (8 seed). They are in a dogfight right now.
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Old 03-15-2019, 01:07 PM   #225
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

we are still a 9 seed in the am bracket matrix update.

Their last 4 in Temple, Florida, St. Johns, Ohio State
First 4 out Belmont, Indiana, Alabama, texas
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