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Old 02-22-2019, 11:45 AM   #1
NY Soonerfan
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Default OU and the Bubble...

As an admitted bubble nerd, I figured I’d take advantage of a slow OU hoops week and delve into who could make the 68 teams come March. There’s a been a lot of good discussion on the board and I’ve been quite adamant that a 7-11 finish in the B12 would make us a “mortal lock” to get in, but I wanted to try and take an overview and put some names down on paper and see just how good (or bad) we look, in comparison to the rest of the bubble teams.

*** I know I rarely post (though I’m on this dang board about 57 times a day LOL) and this is probably obnoxiously long, so I apologize if it breaks any site rules or is a real eyesore, etc. ***

I’ve sussed it out below in tiers, starting with the 32 automatic berths, which I awarded to the current conference leaders as of today, and then followed that with the 36 at-large berths that are available. I then further broke that down into tournament locks and bubble teams, then further broke that down into legitimate bubble teams and real reaches (as of today).

I came up with 22 locks, which means I have 14 potential at-large berths still available. After applying the legit/reach divider, I came up with 20 teams for those 14 spots, and their resumes are listed towards the end of this. And, after seeing it on paper for the first time, and using stats and committee criteria (NET ranking, quadrant wins, etc.), there’s little to no question in my mind we are making the tourney if we finish 7-11 in the B12. I even think it’s not out of the realm of possibility we make it at 6-12, though obviously that would be an uphill battle.

Right now, of the 20 teams I have on my list, EIGHT of those teams hail from power conferences (I did include the Big East in this list) and have under .500 records. That’s pretty remarkable, especially when you consider who the other 12 teams are and how they are far from household names and have very questionable resumes that are inflated by several Q4 wins (of which we have none, as I’ve said many times).

Now, obviously I’m far from 100% right on any of this, and there could be a few teams that I have as locks that aren’t and end up bombing and missing, and there could also be a few reaches that are firmly in the legitimate category and go on a run and make it. But, I think it’s pretty clear that we are in a great spot, should we finish the season strong.

The only caveat to all of this, just like it is every year, would be the locks from potential one-bid conference tournaments that lose. This list would be Nevada, Buffalo, Washington, Wofford and Gonzaga. If one or more of these teams lose, then our position would become very precarious.

America East: Vermont (68)

American Athletic: Houston (4)

Locks (1): Cincinnati
Bubble (4): Central Florida (39), Temple (53), Memphis (61), South Florida (79)

Atlantic 10: VCU (37)
Bubble (2): Davidson (72), Dayton (75)

ACC: North Carolina (9)
Locks (6): Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, NC State
Bubble (2): Syracuse (42), Clemson (44)

Atlantic Sun: Liberty (55)
Bubble (1): Lipscomb (47)

Big 12: Kansas State (28)
Locks (3): Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State
Bubble (4): Texas (35), Baylor (33), Oklahoma (38), TCU (41)

Big East: Marquette (19)
Locks (2): Villanova, St. John’s
Bubble (4): Butler (50), Seton Hall (64), Georgetown (71), Providence (74)

Big Sky: Montana (106) ***

Big South: Radford (133) ***

Big 10: Michigan (7)
Locks (5): Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Bubble (4): Nebraska (46), Ohio State (42), Minnesota (52), Indiana (57)

Big West: UC-Irvine (99) ***

Colonial: Hofstra (57)

C-USA: Old Dominion (80)

Horizon: Northern Kentucky (109) ***

IVY: Yale (67)

MAAC: Canisius (276) ***

MAC: Buffalo (18)
Bubble (1): Toledo (65)

MEAC: Norfolk State (252) ***

MVC: Drake (136) ***

Mountain West: Nevada (22)
Bubble (2): Utah State (36), Fresno State (93)

Northeast: St. Francis (263) ***

Ohio Valley: Murray State (60)
Bubble (1): Belmont (53)

Pac 12: Washington (30)
Bubble (3): Arizona State (66), Oregon (72), Oregon State (85)

Patriot: Lehigh (152) ***

SEC: Tennessee (6)
Locks (5): Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Bubble (3): Florida (31), Alabama (51), Arkansas (71)

Southern: Wofford (24)
Bubble (3): Furman (45), UNC-Greensboro (60), East Tennessee State (68)

Southland: Sam Houston State (173) ***

SWAC: Prairie View A+M (221) ***

Summit: South Dakota State (96) ***

Sun Belt: Georgia State (134) ***

WCC: Gonzaga (1)
Bubble (2): St. Mary’s (40), San Francisco (48)

WAC: New Mexico State (58)

Automatic Bids: 32
Locks: 22
Available Spots: 14

Bubble Teams: 36

Legit (20): (NET ranking), W-L/Conference W-L, QI/II wins, Q4 wins (Q4 losses)

Florida (31): 15-11/7-6, 3/3-5
Baylor (33): 17-9/8-5, 4/7-5 (2)
Texas (35): 15-11/7-6, 4/4-3
Utah State (36): 21-6/11-3, 1/2-12
Oklahoma (38): 16-10/4-9, 3/5-0
Central Florida (39): 19-6/9-4, 0/5-6
St. Mary’s (40): 18-10/9-4, 1/1-8
TCU (41): 17-9/5-8, 1/5-4
Syracuse (42): 18-8/9-4, 3/5-4 (basically a lock, but they have a nightmare schedule to end the season)
Ohio State (43): 17-9/7-8, 4/3-5
Clemson (44): 15-11/5-8, 1/3-6
Furman (45): 22-5/11-4, 1/3-14
Nebraska (46): 15-12/5-11, 2/5-4
Butler (50): 15-12/6-8, 2/5-3
Alabama (51): 15-11/6-7, 2/7-3
Minnesota (52): 17-10/7-9, 3/5-6
Belmont (53): 22-4/13-2, 2/3-14
Temple (54): 19-7/9-4, 1/5-7
Seton Hall (64): 16-10/7-7, 3/8-3
Arizona State (66): 18-8/9-5, 4/5-6 (2)

Reaches (16): Lipscomb (47), San Francisco (48), Indiana (57), UNC-Greensboro (60), Memphis (63), Toledo (65), East Tennessee State (68), Davidson (70), Arkansas (71), Dayton (74), South Florida (76), Georgetown (69), Oregon (72), Providence (73), Oregon State (85), Fresno State (93),

Lock Conference Leaders (5): Buffalo, Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington, Wofford

Bubble Conference Leaders (7): VCU, Liberty, Hofstra, ODU, Yale, Murray State, New Mexico State
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Old 02-22-2019, 11:55 AM   #2
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Very well done. You are absolutely right in saying that if we get three more regular season wins, we are in. If we only get two more, it'll depend on how other bubble teams fare and obviously we'd need to avoid a loss to OSU or West Virginia in KC. Either way, tomorrow is a must.
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:02 PM   #3
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

really good stuff thank for taking the time to post it
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:24 PM   #4
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Well done NY. Great detail and list of all teams....and I'm a fellow bubble nerd and stat geek. There are so many intriguing bubble teams this year that have glaring warts (i.e. either not near enough Q1/Q2 wins or too many bad losses).

I look at a team like Arizona State. They beat KU and Mississippi St (good wins), but they also have two horrible losses (@Vandy and at home to a terrible Wazzu team). And the PAC-12 is so terribly down this year that they only have one more potential opportunity for a Q-1 win....and that is if that meet up with Washington in the PAC-12 tournament. They might be in trouble....especially if they don't play/beat Washington again.

And then there are teams like UCF and Utah State....who have gaudy records, but very hollow resumes (only one Q-1 win between them). This is why, after some study, that I now realize OU isn't in as bad of shape as I first thought. OU has the Q-1 and Q-2 wins (and the opportunity for a few more) while avoiding the bad losses. When put in context and compared to fellow bubble teams, OU is likely seeded in the 9/10 range if the field were announced today. Still, we need to win at least three more in order to feel really comfortable.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:31 AM   #5
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Thanks guys, I appreciate it. Here's hoping we get on a run and remove any doubt.
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Old 02-23-2019, 04:13 PM   #6
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

I will update this as the night goes on:

Florida (31): Won
Baylor (33): Won
Texas (35): Lost
Utah State (36): Won
Oklahoma (38): Won
Central Florida (39): Won
St. Mary’s (40): Won
TCU (41): Won
Syracuse (42): Lost
Ohio State (43): Lost
Clemson (44): Won
Furman (45): lost to Wofford (who we beat)
Nebraska (46): lost....they are just about done.
Butler (50): bye this weekend
Alabama (51): Won
Minnesota (52): Lost...they have got to be on the "outside looking in" as of now.
Belmont (53): Won
Temple (54): Won
Seton Hall (64): Lost
Arizona State (66): Won

Last edited by stormspencer; 02-24-2019 at 09:12 PM.
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Old 02-23-2019, 04:33 PM   #7
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Major props to you, NY Soonerfan! Impressive, time-consuming breakdown on the bubble teams we’re competing with for a spot in the dance. Thank you very much!

Thank you, too, stormspencer!
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Old 02-23-2019, 11:46 PM   #8
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Thanks again guys!

And I think it was a pretty good day to be a Sooner fan. We won a game we had to win, while giving Texas a very damaging loss, and a few other bubble teams lost as well. Like SS said, Nebraska is basically all but done, Seton Hall is getting close, and Furman lost the one game (at home too) they needed to win to really give them a chance, since I can't see a team in the Southern getting in with five conference losses.
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Old 02-24-2019, 09:16 PM   #9
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

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Originally Posted by NY Soonerfan View Post
Thanks again guys!

And I think it was a pretty good day to be a Sooner fan. We won a game we had to win, while giving Texas a very damaging loss, and a few other bubble teams lost as well. Like SS said, Nebraska is basically all but done, Seton Hall is getting close, and Furman lost the one game (at home too) they needed to win to really give them a chance, since I can't see a team in the Southern getting in with five conference losses.
Minnesota really had a damaging loss tonight. Like us, they are going to have a couple of Q-1 opportunities before the season over.....but they are in trouble after tonight.
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Old 02-24-2019, 09:19 PM   #10
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Minnesota really had a damaging loss tonight. Like us, they are going to have a couple of Q-1 opportunities before the season over.....but they are in trouble after tonight.
Absolutely! That was a bad, bad loss and one that really helps us too.
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Old 02-24-2019, 09:25 PM   #11
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

OU moved from a 10 to a 9 in Bracket Matrix today. Out of 101 bracketologists, exactly one doesn't have then in.

Last edited by WichitaSooner; 02-24-2019 at 09:28 PM.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:15 PM   #12
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Other bubble teams playing tonight:
Ohio State
Alabama
TCU
Temple
Syracuse
Utah State
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:44 PM   #13
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Quote:
Originally Posted by stormspencer View Post
Other bubble teams playing tonight:
Ohio State
Alabama
TCU
Temple
Syracuse
Utah State
TCU is in triple ot with WVU - in the time it took to look these up WVU went from down 1 to up 8 now just over a min left
Syracuse is up on UNC at the under 4 for the first half
Bama Won at south carolina
Ohio State beat #22 Iowa
Temple up 5 on memphis at the half
Utah State just tipped
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:50 PM   #14
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

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TCU is in triple ot with WVU - in the time it took to look these up WVU went from down 1 to up 8 now just over a min left
Syracuse is up on UNC at the under 4 for the first half
Bama Won at south carolina
Ohio State beat #22 Iowa
Temple and Memphis Tied just before half time
Utah State just tipped
TCU about to go down. Also, Butler (who was on the "outside looking in") lost at home to Providence. It would be nice if Memphis knocked off Temple. I expect Utah State to win tonight.
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:52 PM   #15
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

TCU on the verge of a damaging loss. West Virginia had about a dozen chances to win in regulation and the first two OTs but may actually hold on this time.
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:55 PM   #16
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

TCU Loses
Syracuse up 3 at the half
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:08 PM   #17
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

Memphis beat Temple 81-73
UNC beat Syracuse 93-85
Utah State beats San Diego St 70-54
Indiana beats Wisconsin 75-73 in double ot
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:01 AM   #18
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Memphis beat Temple 81-73
UNC beat Syracuse 93-85
Utah State beats San Diego St 70-54
Indiana beats Wisconsin 75-73 in double ot
The Providence win at Butler was a great result for us; PC is likely too far gone for it to matter, but it was severely damaging for Butler's at-large chances.

And that loss sure won't help Temple's chances either.

And now, if TCU keeps losing, they will have a similarly poor conference record like us, and we'll have beaten them twice, so we will look that much better.
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:05 AM   #19
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

With OU being as "locked in" as they almost are, just goes to the state of college basketball. Regardless of OOC record or wins, no team that goes 6-12 in their conference should get in. And in most years, I don't think they would. But this is one weak field that we are almost certainly going to benefit from.
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:24 AM   #20
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With OU being as "locked in" as they almost are, just goes to the state of college basketball. Regardless of OOC record or wins, no team that goes 6-12 in their conference should get in. And in most years, I don't think they would. But this is one week field that we are almost certainly going to benefit from.
I don't think we are anywhere remotely close to "locked in" at 6-12. We'd be a coin flip, at best, with that record. All bets are off if we finish 6-12.

But yeah, I do agree with you totally that 6-12 is pretty pathetic and you don't deserve to be in. The fact we still could just basically speaks to the state and age of CBB these days. And likely going forward too, especially with all these power conferences that have way too many teams.

My only argument to the bad conference records from the power leagues would be "What do you think the mid-majors would be in those conferences?" Me personally, can't imagine the East Tennessee State's and Belmont's of the world being any better than 6-12, and definitely not 7-11. I'm not necessarily saying one side is right and one side is wrong, I just think it's a fun discussion and one the people in favor of the little guy probably don't think about (or what to think about).
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:32 AM   #21
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With OU being as "locked in" as they almost are, just goes to the state of college basketball. Regardless of OOC record or wins, no team that goes 6-12 in their conference should get in. And in most years, I don't think they would. But this is one week field that we are almost certainly going to benefit from.
So after weeks of suggesting that we won't get in, and in a way preemptively counting this season as a missed tourney appearance on Lon's ledger, now the argument is shifting to "well, we might make it, but we don't really deserve it." And for someone who keeps touting a love for facts, you are expressing an opinion when you say a 6-12 team should never get in. I'm sure that if we make it, you will then ignore the fact that we have made 6 out of the last 7 and instead focus on your subjective assessment that (a) we made last year in part due to Trae, and (b) we made this year not because of our merit but because of other team's deficiencies and because the committee is stupid to not factor in conference record.

There do seem to be plenty of sites suggesting that one more win (West Virginia) will be enough. The Athletic went so far as suggesting that if we win that game, we will essentially be playing with house money in our final two games. I'm not quite that confident because you never know how many bids will be stolen in conference tourneys, and it's also possible that a team currently on the wrong side of the bubble will get hot down the stretch and pass us. But if we do end up 6-12, and we make the tournament, nothing will be more tiresome than hearing people say we didn't deserve a bid, but failing to identify specific teams who should have gotten in over us.
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:40 AM   #22
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But if we do end up 6-12, and we make the tournament, nothing will be more tiresome than hearing people say we didn't deserve a bid, but failing to identify specific teams who should have gotten in over us.
Well said. Give me "it's a line drive in the box score" any day of the week. We made it. We are in. That's all that matters. We are all 0-0 going forward.
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:43 AM   #23
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I don't think we are anywhere remotely close to "locked in" at 6-12. We'd be a coin flip, at best, with that record. All bets are off if we finish 6-12.
The only way we don't get in at 6-12 is if we also lose in the first round of the Big 12 Tourney. Beat WVU and win that first Big 12 Tourney game, and unless something crazy happens, we're in.
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:48 AM   #24
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

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But if we do end up 6-12, and we make the tournament, nothing will be more tiresome than hearing people say we didn't deserve a bid, but failing to identify specific teams who should have gotten in over us.
Yep....I don't like the idea of a 6-12 conference record more than anyone else, but who is going to be put in front of us (a team with 10 combined Q1/Q2 wins and zero Q3/Q4 losses)? Down the stretch (with the exception of Syracuse) all of these other bubble teams we are competing with are losing some games as well and albeit to lesser competition in a lot of cases.
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Old 02-27-2019, 10:19 AM   #25
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Default Re: OU and the Bubble...

This team making it in will be just like last year, a 1 and done team who will lose to an also-ran program.
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