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Old 03-29-2020, 10:00 AM   #2201
coolm
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

interesting. These are the same arguments we useta encounter from the non-engineering divisions on the Canopus (AS-34), Eisenhower (CVN-69), and Arkansas (CGN-41) when we'd run ship-wide radcon drills. People don't seem to understand the importance of isolation and cessation of activities during cleanliness protocols.

Everyone's job was "more important" such that we constantly had to stress how paramount it is that EVERYONE follow the procedures for them to work.

That's why the little graphical simulation given in the free WSJ article is so important to regard.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:02 AM   #2202
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First of all, only 55% of the country voted.... And of those, a majority didn't vote for Donald Trump. Hilary is a horrible candidate though and I don't support her at all.
Trump won the Electoral Vote 306 to 232. If you want to talk about percentages, Hillary was the winner in 16 states. Do the math.

The Democrats may whine about the outcome and do everything they can to change the Constitution. But our Founding Fathers were wise to even the odds somewhat for less populated states.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:10 AM   #2203
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Trump won the Electoral Vote 306 to 232. If you want to talk about percentages, Hillary was the winner in 16 states. Do the math.

The Democrats may whine about the outcome and do everything they can to change the Constitution. But our Founding Fathers were wise to even the odds somewhat for less populated states.
Yep!

And I laugh at the movement by Dems in recent years to try and rescind the electoral college. Just b/c it's not working out for them.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:14 AM   #2204
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Yep!

And I laugh at the movement by Dems in recent years to try and rescind the electoral college. Just b/c it's not working out for them.
For many democrats virtue and convenience are synonymous. The discerning factor is what works for you as opposed to what is inherently right.

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Old 03-29-2020, 10:25 AM   #2205
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Agreed. Let's see if steven agrees with us.

NY should be locked down for a couple of weeks.
The state, or NYC specifically?
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:28 AM   #2206
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The state, or NYC specifically?
Probably just the city, but I reserve the right to change my mind.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:29 AM   #2207
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The state, or NYC specifically?

I believe the state as a whole for Jersey, and I think Connecticut, were also on the block.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:29 AM   #2208
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

Fauci saying up to 200,000 deaths possible.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us...cid=spartanntp
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:55 AM   #2209
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

While NY may not be completely shut down, this is far from "business as usual." There have been drastic changes compared to a month ago. It was always going to be the epicenter regardless of what democratic party was in control.

And no, China has not been as transparent as I would have hoped. Had the virus hit in reverse order, China would have been much better prepared.
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Old 03-29-2020, 11:27 AM   #2210
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While NY may not be completely shut down, this is far from "business as usual." There have been drastic changes compared to a month ago. It was always going to be the epicenter regardless of what democratic party was in control.

And no, China has not been as transparent as I would have hoped. Had the virus hit in reverse order, China would have been much better prepared.
Iím sure youíre right. De Blasio made it sound as if the changes in NYC have been minor. I donít have to live there to know thatís not true. Politicians are geared to downplay the effects of anything that could cast a dark shadow on their city or state.

I agree with you about China. Only a fool would trust them now.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:19 PM   #2211
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How do you explain a story like this? A miracle, an outlier? It seems to defy everything we have learned so far about the Covid-19 virus.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...vers-1.5513820
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:56 PM   #2212
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How do you explain a story like this? A miracle, an outlier? It seems to defy everything we have learned so far about the Covid-19 virus.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...vers-1.5513820

That he made it to 99 years of age is a miracle in itself, so it appears luck has been on his side for the long ride. I'll pay for him to go to Vegas once it reopens in a normal fashion (hope his range of movement is good enough to play the dice tables). I'll be banking on it.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:10 PM   #2213
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Sad news. Tulsa native Joe Diffie has died from Covid-19 at the age of 61. I saw him in concert in Tulsa in 1992 at Mayfest.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:44 PM   #2214
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First of all, only 55% of the country voted.... And of those, a majority didn't vote for Donald Trump. Hilary is a horrible candidate though and I don't support her at all.
Lol thanks ya proved my point.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:02 PM   #2215
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Some excerpts from governor Cuomo of New York Saturday's briefing.


Everything we do now (procure ventilators etc) is in preparation for possible apex (when curve hits the highest point)

Apex in New York is estimated in 14-21 days from now

We'll keep COVID-19 patients separated from the other patients in hospitals
We can now test for antibodies to determine whether a person had COVID-19. This is a blood test

172 new ICU admission in the last day, vs. 374 in the preceding day, may indicate a decline in the growth rate

155,934 people tested in New York State

We need a faster testing process. Can't wait 5 days as it is now. Other countries now also have home tests. We should do the same
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:08 PM   #2216
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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Some excerpts from governor Cuomo of New York Saturday's briefing.


Everything we do now (procure ventilators etc) is in preparation for possible apex (when curve hits the highest point)

Apex in New York is estimated in 14-21 days from now

We'll keep COVID-19 patients separated from the other patients in hospitals
We can now test for antibodies to determine whether a person had COVID-19. This is a blood test

172 new ICU admission in the last day, vs. 374 in the preceding day, may indicate a decline in the growth rate

155,934 people tested in New York State

We need a faster testing process. Can't wait 5 days as it is now. Other countries now also have home tests. We should do the same
Pretty sure they just approved a new test that gives you results in minutes. Or am I mistaken?
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:22 PM   #2217
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Pretty sure they just approved a new test that gives you results in minutes. Or am I mistaken?
They did, a point of care test that can give results in about 7 minutes. It will be great and Iíve already recommended my lab purchase an instrument and test kits. They are very limited though so Iím not sure if we can get them any time soon.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:22 PM   #2218
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Pretty sure they just approved a new test that gives you results in minutes. Or am I mistaken?
Hopefully, they don't come from the Far East. Heard 640k were shipped to Spain from both China and South Korea and the Spanish realized they were only 30% accurate.

I know Abbott Labs has a 5 minute test but not sure who gets it first. Supposedly they will produce 50k units/day.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...st/2932766001/

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Old 03-29-2020, 03:29 PM   #2219
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I'm for healthcare availability but very much against government run healthcare.

Tell me what is your model for success in any government run operation. Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid underfunded and Medicare and Medicaid plagued with fraud. Billions every year. Post Office in serious jeapordy.

Simple reason for that. No one is accountable in the government. Yet try to get a beaurocrat to make a decision even though they don't even get fired for watching porn at work.

It is not the people. It is the system. Government entities can always raise taxes, often hidden taxes to get more money. The prime motivation is to get an ever increasing budget. Don't believe that. Ask any friend who is a government employee what happens if they haven't spent the budget close to the end of the year. They spend it whether they need to or not. their greatest fear is that they will get a budget cut the next year. So they ask for a 10% increase and call it a budget cut if they get less than that. No way a business could survive operating that way.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:40 PM   #2220
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I'm for healthcare availability but very much against government run healthcare.

Tell me what is your model for success in any government run operation. Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid underfunded and Medicare and Medicaid plagued with fraud. Billions every year. Post Office in serious jeapordy.

Simple reason for that. No one is accountable in the government. Yet try to get a beaurocrat to make a decision even though they don't even get fired for watching porn at work.

It is not the people. It is the system. Government entities can always raise taxes, often hidden taxes to get more money The prime motivation is to get an ever increasing budget. Don't believe that. Ask any friend who is a government employee what happens if they haven't spent the budget close to the end of the year. They spend it whether they need to or not. their greatest fear is that they will get a budget cut the next year. So they ask for a 10% increase and call it a budget cut if they get less than that. No way a business could survive operating that way.
Lmao! If only these things were true!
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:41 PM   #2221
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I'm for healthcare availability but very much against government run healthcare.

Tell me what is your model for success in any government run operation. Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid underfunded and Medicare and Medicaid plagued with fraud. Billions every year. Post Office in serious jeapordy.

Simple reason for that. No one is accountable in the government. Yet try to get a beaurocrat to make a decision even though they don't even get fired for watching porn at work.

It is not the people. It is the system. Government entities can always raise taxes, often hidden taxes to get more money. The prime motivation is to get an ever increasing budget. Don't believe that. Ask any friend who is a government employee what happens if they haven't spent the budget close to the end of the year. They spend it whether they need to or not. their greatest fear is that they will get a budget cut the next year. So they ask for a 10% increase and call it a budget cut if they get less than that. No way a business could survive operating that way.
Exactly. There are a lot of things I'm for in the private sector that I don't what the government anywhere near. There is nearly nothing the government does better or more efficiently than the private sector.
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Old 03-29-2020, 03:49 PM   #2222
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There is nearly nothing the government does better or more efficiently than the private sector.
except when you need centralization. but continue with your ill-advised pontificating.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:24 PM   #2223
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Most epidemiologists think our peak will be in mid-May. Extrapolate our deaths doubling every 48 hours until May 15th. Just go do some quick math....

Now remember, mid-May is just the peak. That doesn’t mean it ends there, it just starts subsiding.

It’s possible that social distancing can move that peak to the left somewhat and flatten the curve, but we need an all-hands-on-deck approach, but clearly too many people STILL aren’t taking this seriously enough.
This is a great link. It shows every state, and lists the criteria for its projections. It shows just about every state peaking anywhere from April 15-20th. The interesting thing about his link it shows you the impact on ICU and hospital beds.

These worst-case scenarios of peaking in May or 1 million cases or 200K deaths are based on limited mitigation. Even Dr. Fauci has said this. 70% of the country is in more severe mitigation restrictions than the CDC recommendations that were today extended to April 30th. The predictions on this website might be more realistic based on the shelter in place restrictions now placed on 250+ million Americans and 47 of the largest 50 cities.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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Old 03-29-2020, 07:04 PM   #2224
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This is a great link. It shows every state, and lists the criteria for its projections. It shows just about every state peaking anywhere from April 15-20th. The interesting thing about his link it shows you the impact on ICU and hospital beds.

These worst-case scenarios of peaking in May or 1 million cases or 200K deaths are based on limited mitigation. Even Dr. Fauci has said this. 70% of the country is in more severe mitigation restrictions than the CDC recommendations that were today extended to April 30th. The predictions on this website might be more realistic based on the shelter in place restrictions now placed on 250+ million Americans and 47 of the largest 50 cities.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Are those numbers projecting us to have enough ventilators?

ICU beds usually aren't magical, and even the physician care shouldn't be much different. The main difference is nursing care (higher nurse:bed ratio), and in this situation -- RTs and Vents. I really don't think it would be that difficult for hospitals to temporarily double their "ICU beds" if they can bring in enough nursing/RT staff.
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:12 PM   #2225
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Are those numbers projecting us to have enough ventilators?

ICU beds usually aren't magical, and even the physician care shouldn't be much different. The main difference is nursing care (higher nurse:bed ratio), and in this situation -- RTs and Vents. I really don't think it would be that difficult for hospitals to temporarily double their "ICU beds" if they can bring in enough nursing/RT staff.
It shows a need of 234 ventilators in OK but doesn't show how many we have. 434 ICU needed of 467, and 2873 out of 5457 hospital beds.

Then you go look at NY or NJ, a very scary picture ahead.
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