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Old 03-06-2020, 11:36 AM   #26
steverocks35
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

The otherwise healthy 34 year-old physician who discovered this virus in China, and who blew the whistle and sounded the alarm died of Covid-19 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/w...ronavirus.html
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Old 03-06-2020, 11:55 AM   #27
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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Yes!
The CDC says you’re wrong:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ldren-faq.html

This link also shows that age is definitely a factor:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:00 PM   #28
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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10-19 is still a child.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:04 PM   #29
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10-19 is still a child.
Sorry, I posted the wrong link. Itís correct now.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:05 PM   #30
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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The CDC says you’re wrong:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ldren-faq.html

This link also shows that age is definitely a factor:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/
I never said age wasn't a factor, of course the disease is more fatal for the elderly. And I also said that younger people have a lower mortality rate but that doesn't mean it can't kill you! See the link I posted.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:07 PM   #31
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

By the way... 0.2% mortality is DOUBLE THE MORTALITY RATE OF SEASONAL FLU!

Your link says the mortality rate for all people without pre-existing conditions is 0.9%. Do you think that's low? That's 9 TIMES THE MORTALITY RATE OF SEASONAL FLU!
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:16 PM   #32
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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By the way... 0.2% mortality is DOUBLE THE MORTALITY RATE OF SEASONAL FLU!

Your link says the mortality rate for all people without pre-existing conditions is 0.9%. Do you think that's low? That's 9 TIMES THE MORTALITY RATE OF SEASONAL FLU!
that is likely at least double the true rate becasue the asymptomatic rate seems to be at least 50%


still clearlly it is deadly and dangerous but

if you are not old and in reasonably good health it is NOT that big of a deal
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:19 PM   #33
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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that is likely at least double the true rate becasue the asymptomatic rate seems to be at least 50%


still clearlly it is deadly and dangerous but

if you are not old and in reasonably good health it is NOT that big of a deal
Thatís just not true. People with no pre-existing conditions are nine times more likely to die if they contract Covid-19 than ALL people who catch the seasonal flu
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:19 PM   #34
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The otherwise healthy 34 year-old physician who discovered this virus in China, and who blew the whistle and sounded the alarm died of Covid-19
I bet you that had more to do with the location from which he blew his whistle than the ferocity of the virus.

I'm not going to sweat it. It's going to do what it does whether I drink a beer or gnaw on my nails like Olive Oyl.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:19 PM   #35
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The otherwise healthy 34 year-old physician who discovered this virus in China, and who blew the whistle and sounded the alarm died of Covid-19 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/w...ronavirus.html
where does it say he was otherwise healthy??
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:22 PM   #36
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I never said age wasn't a factor, of course the disease is more fatal for the elderly. And I also said that younger people have a lower mortality rate but that doesn't mean it can't kill you! See the link I posted.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t be concerned. It would be a mistake to bury our heads in the sand and ignore the risks.

When my wife and I go out in public we wash our hands in soap and water, as well as use an antiseptic hand sanitizer when we get home. We also spray a saline solution in our nostrils. I’m not sure if that helps, but we can’t afford to be affected by a high risk virus or a bacterial infection at our age.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:24 PM   #37
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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that is likely at least double the true rate becasue the asymptomatic rate seems to be at least 50%


still clearlly it is deadly and dangerous but

if you are not old and in reasonably good health it is NOT that big of a deal
From an epidemiological standpoint, I expect the mortality rate to significantly decrease because:
- Many people have the virus currently and don't know it (haven't been tested) and will survive.
- There are a segment of people who had the virus (who were never tested) and have already recovered.

Thus, from a metrics standpoint, I don't believe we have (or will have) an accurate mortality rate. With that said, it's concerning that it spreads so easily, but I also think we are on the right path to getting it under control through various measures (isolation, quarantine, etc.) as well as several medications being administered that have worked on a few patients.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:24 PM   #38
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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Iím not saying we shouldnít be concerned. It would be a mistake to bury our heads in the sand and ignore the risks.

When my wife and I go out on public we wash our hands in soap and water, as well as use an antiseptic hand sanitizer when we get home. We also spray a saline solution in our nostrils. Iím not sure if that helps, but we canít afford to be affected by a high risk virus or a bacterial infection at our age.
Those are all good practices.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:25 PM   #39
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Thatís just not true. People with no pre-existing conditions are nine times more likely to die if they contract Covid-19 than ALL people who catch the seasonal flu
that is asumming that all those infected number is correct there is a ton of evidence showing that it is not .. that it is wildly underreported ..

if double the number of people are infected then the death rate is way over stated ..
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:26 PM   #40
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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Iím not saying we shouldnít be concerned. It would be a mistake to bury our heads in the sand and ignore the risks.

When my wife and I go out in public we wash our hands in soap and water, as well as use an antiseptic hand sanitizer when we get home. We also spray a saline solution in our nostrils. Iím not sure if that helps, but we canít afford to be affected by a high risk virus or a bacterial infection at our age.
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From an epidemiological standpoint, I expect the mortality rate to significantly decrease because:
- Many people have the virus currently and don't know it (haven't been tested) and will survive.
- There are a segment of people who had the virus (who were never tested) and have already recovered.

Thus, from a metrics standpoint, I don't believe we have (or will have) an accurate mortality rate. With that said, it's concerning that it spreads so easily, but I also think we are on the right path to getting it under control through various measures (isolation, quarantine, etc.) as well as several medications being administered that have worked on a few patients.
i very much agree with all of this
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:28 PM   #41
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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that is asumming that all those infected number is correct there is a ton of evidence showing that it is not .. that it is wildly underreported ..

if double the number of people are infected then the death rate is way over stated ..
If there are twice as many people who have the disease than are reported then the death rate drops to 4 1/2 times the rate of ALL people who have seasonal flu...

Thatís still awful.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:41 PM   #42
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

My take on this:

1. The level of misinformation and fact vs. fiction on this thing is insane. I am not an expert in any sense and only trying to listen to the various "experts" and apply basic logic. And depending on which "expert" you choose or which news source you choose, the answers are wildly different. It does appear clear that this is FAR more dangerous to the elderly and those that are already ill. The reports are also clear that less than 2% of the cases in China involve children and those affected have very mild symptoms-- that seems to be something everyone agrees on.

2. At some point we have to decide what we want to do-- arbitrarily closing stuff doesn't make much sense. Closing schools and then sending kids to daycare or the local park makes no sense. We aren't China. We don't have an authoritarian/Communist gov't that has the ability to lock EVERYONE down (even healthy people) in a situation like this. The only way we can probably truly get this thing to "go away" or be highly manageable is if we all stop human interaction and stay in our homes for the next 6-12 months. This is here to stay now a lot like H1N1 and other things that come along. It's not like if we shut down OKC for three weeks and then open it back up that we will have magically defeated the disease. And if we do go on longterm lockdown, the negative effects of that are likely to be greater than the virus itself. The economy would crumble-- there would be mass lay-offs and income would totally dry up for many, many people. That all might be worth it if this was a highly fatal disease or if it has crippling effects for the majority who caught it. But I think it's more likely this is just a new thing we have to learn to deal with and mitigate.

3. If the NCAA says no fans at game, they should just cancel the Tournament altogether. It would be totally lame and again, a little arbitrary. Teams would still be traveling on plane and in airports, staying in hotels, etc. And unless all of the fans stay locked at home instead of going to the arena, they will likely go out in the community and do other things. At an arena you are most likely to get infected by a sick person sitting very close to you-- not some guy in the upper level. So the risk isn't necessarily that much greater than if you ride the subway or take an uber or go to a restaurant. I understand the CYA nature of this and how no business/entity wants to be the one to hold an event and then find out someone sick attended/possibly spread it at said event.

4. I'm already a germaphobe and wash my hands raw daily; I also routinely wipe down tables and such when we go out to eat... so none of that is a big deal to me. I don't fear getting the virus either-- the science indicates to that myself and my immediate family would not suffer much more than a cold if we were to catch it-- I do fear for the elderly as this appears to be very tough on them. But mostly I fear the fear and what the "shutdown" mentality might inadvertently lead to.
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Old 03-06-2020, 01:18 PM   #43
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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Originally Posted by OUSKINS View Post
My take on this:

1. The level of misinformation and fact vs. fiction on this thing is insane. I am not an expert in any sense and only trying to listen to the various "experts" and apply basic logic. And depending on which "expert" you choose or which news source you choose, the answers are wildly different. It does appear clear that this is FAR more dangerous to the elderly and those that are already ill. The reports are also clear that less than 2% of the cases in China involve children and those affected have very mild symptoms-- that seems to be something everyone agrees on.

2. At some point we have to decide what we want to do-- arbitrarily closing stuff doesn't make much sense. Closing schools and then sending kids to daycare or the local park makes no sense. We aren't China. We don't have an authoritarian/Communist gov't that has the ability to lock EVERYONE down (even healthy people) in a situation like this. The only way we can probably truly get this thing to "go away" or be highly manageable is if we all stop human interaction and stay in our homes for the next 6-12 months. This is here to stay now a lot like H1N1 and other things that come along. It's not like if we shut down OKC for three weeks and then open it back up that we will have magically defeated the disease. And if we do go on longterm lockdown, the negative effects of that are likely to be greater than the virus itself. The economy would crumble-- there would be mass lay-offs and income would totally dry up for many, many people. That all might be worth it if this was a highly fatal disease or if it has crippling effects for the majority who caught it. But I think it's more likely this is just a new thing we have to learn to deal with and mitigate.

3. If the NCAA says no fans at game, they should just cancel the Tournament altogether. It would be totally lame and again, a little arbitrary. Teams would still be traveling on plane and in airports, staying in hotels, etc. And unless all of the fans stay locked at home instead of going to the arena, they will likely go out in the community and do other things. At an arena you are most likely to get infected by a sick person sitting very close to you-- not some guy in the upper level. So the risk isn't necessarily that much greater than if you ride the subway or take an uber or go to a restaurant. I understand the CYA nature of this and how no business/entity wants to be the one to hold an event and then find out someone sick attended/possibly spread it at said event.

4. I'm already a germaphobe and wash my hands raw daily; I also routinely wipe down tables and such when we go out to eat... so none of that is a big deal to me. I don't fear getting the virus either-- the science indicates to that myself and my immediate family would not suffer much more than a cold if we were to catch it-- I do fear for the elderly as this appears to be very tough on them. But mostly I fear the fear and what the "shutdown" mentality might inadvertently lead to.
this is good stuff
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Old 03-06-2020, 01:20 PM   #44
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

Very well stated OUSkins. I'm in total agreement in all points. And I've been in health care for 25 years.....yet I'm still far from an "expert".
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Old 03-06-2020, 02:28 PM   #45
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

A lot of level-headed responses on this board regarding COVID-19. Here is my take on what makes this different than what we are used to with viruses like the flu:
  • It's much more contagious. According to the CDC and WHO, the spread rate for the flu is like .75 to 1.00 while COVID-19 is 2.5 to 3.0, meaning for each individual that has it, they will spread it to 3 to 4 more times the number of people than if they had the flu.
  • It's non-symptomatic for a much longer time. If you have the flu, according to the CDC, you will show symptoms within 1-4 days. That means you will be more cautious and those around you would be more cautious. With COVID-19, that period is about 14 days. Since it is also more contagious, it means you are spreading it around at a higher rate without knowing it.
  • There is no vaccine or treatment to prevent COVID-19, only comforting the systems. I know the stats show COVID-19 is more "deadly" but I would speculate if we didn't have Tami Flu or flu shots, the common flu would be far more "deadly". Once we don't have adequate testing, and if we knew who actually had it, it will end up lowering the fatality rates.
  • Young people are more immune to it that the common flu. This is what scientists need to focus on, IMO. Why are people, especially those under 19, able to fight this off far better than the common flu. Most of the deaths are those 70+, and those 50+ with an underlying condition.

The worst part about COVID-19, since it is highly contagious, there is no vaccine, and the incubation period is longer, the most effective method of stopping its spread has been quarantine. This has shut down events, schools, and even cities.

For the average healthy US citizen, this is the greatest thing to worry about- the impact of shutdowns and quarantines, both from an economic perspective and a personal supplies. We all need to ask ourselves, do we have adequate basic home and personal supplies if it came to my city?

Like Ada and OUSKINS said, just take precaution and you should be fine. Even if you do get it, if normally healthy, the statistics show you should be okay after time.

The COVID-19 is real and we should be concerned and not ignore the facts, but it doesn't mean we are all going to get sick or die.

Last edited by MJSooner; 03-06-2020 at 02:31 PM.
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Old 03-06-2020, 02:38 PM   #46
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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Originally Posted by MJSooner View Post
A lot of level-headed responses on this board regarding COVID-19. Here is my take on what makes this different than what we are used to with viruses like the flu:
  • It's much more contagious. According to the CDC and WHO, the spread rate for the flu is like .75 to 1.00 while COVID-19 is 2.5 to 3.0, meaning for each individual that has it, they will spread it to 3 to 4 more times the number of people than if they had the flu.
  • It's non-symptomatic for a much longer time. If you have the flu, according to the CDC, you will show symptoms within 1-4 days. That means you will be more cautious and those around you would be more cautious. With COVID-19, that period is about 14 days. Since it is also more contagious, it means you are spreading it around at a higher rate without knowing it.
  • There is no vaccine or treatment to prevent COVID-19, only comforting the systems. I know the stats show COVID-19 is more "deadly" but I would speculate if we didn't have Tami Flu or flu shots, the common flu would be far more "deadly". Once we don't have adequate testing, and if we knew who actually had it, it will end up lowering the fatality rates.
  • Young people are more immune to it that the common flu. This is what scientists need to focus on, IMO. Why are people, especially those under 19, able to fight this off far better than the common flu. Most of the deaths are those 70+, and those 50+ with an underlying condition.

The worst part about COVID-19, since it is highly contagious, there is no vaccine, and the incubation period is longer, the most effective method of stopping its spread has been quarantine. This has shut down events, schools, and even cities.

For the average healthy US citizen, this is the greatest thing to worry about- the impact of shutdowns and quarantines, both from an economic perspective and a personal supplies. We all need to ask ourselves, do we have adequate basic home and personal supplies if it came to my city?

Like Ada and OUSKINS said, just take precaution and you should be fine. Even if you do get it, if normally healthy, the statistics show you should be okay after time.

The COVID-19 is real and we should be concerned and not ignore the facts, but it doesn't mean we are all going to get sick or die.
I agree with this. The speculation among scientists is that young people in China are more immune to Covid-19 because they are exposed to many more Coronaviruses than people elsewhere. (Coronavirus is a class of viruses that includes SARS and MERS)

Last edited by steverocks35; 03-06-2020 at 02:57 PM.
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Old 03-06-2020, 03:45 PM   #47
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

i am 40 and very healthy, and i am taking it serious. never realized how much i touch my face.

from what i read last night, you are not exactly out of the woods once recovered. some have been said to have a form of lung fibrosis, and one man died a month after release in china.

yes, chances are probably low to catch it, but i am not risking my long term and short term health when more and more cases are popping up each day across the states and world.
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Old 03-06-2020, 04:07 PM   #48
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

South X Southwest cancelled due to COVID-19.
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Old 03-06-2020, 04:10 PM   #49
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

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South X Southwest cancelled due to COVID-19.
Just came in here to mention this... wow. Makes you wonder about the fate of the NCAA basketball tournament.
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Old 03-06-2020, 04:26 PM   #50
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Default Re: March Madness and Covid-19

Some of you need to go take a statistics class. It is the same foolishness that causes people to fail to realize the impact officials have on games - a huge amount.

Think about it.

For US citizens, the two main places it hit severely so far were on a cruise ship and in a nursing home. How many kids were in one of those places? Very, very few. And of course, the impact is going to be worse for people already ill and infirm than for healthy people. All illnesses are. This is a virus with some similarity to flu,and lots of people of all ages catch it, get seriously ill from it, and some die from it. Don't be foolish: Use reasonable caution.

Many people use statistics like an inebriate uses a lamppost: More for support than illumination.
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